Chemicals

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's petrochemical shipments rose by 26.5% year on year in April to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.34 billion, reversing the 3.6% decline in the previous month, official data showed on Friday. Overall exports of chemicals and chemical products in April fell by 34.5% year on year to S$3.59 billion, extending the 37% contraction in March, Enterprise Singapore said in a statement. The country's overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 9.3% year on year to S$13.9 billion, extending the 20.8% decline in the preceding month. Non-electronic NODX – which includes chemicals and pharmaceuticals – fell by 12.3% year on year to $10.9 billion in April following the 23.2% contraction in March. NODX shipments to the US and EU fell sharply in April, while exports to China rose last month. Singapore is a major manufacturer and exporter of petrochemicals in southeast Asia. Its petrochemicals hub Jurong Island houses more than 100 global chemical firms, including energy majors ExxonMobil and Shell. The drop in the country's NODX in April mirrors weaker manufacturing activity seen during the month. The country’s purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 50.5 in April from 50.7 in March, marking the eighth consecutive month that the reading has remained above the 50 mark, according to data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM). A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing economy, while a lower number denotes contraction. In a separate survey of private manufacturers, Singapore’s April PMI eased to 52.6 from 55.7 in March, financial information and services provider S&P Global said on 6 May. For the whole of 2024, Singapore's economy is expected to expand by 1.0-3.0%, compared with actual GDP growth of 1.1% growth in 2023, the ministry said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

17-May-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry. Computers, smartphones, washing machines, refrigerators and automobiles cannot be manufactured without plastics and chemicals. Think of women in the developing world who still have to wash clothes by hand (this is, sadly, how some patriarchal societies work). Imagine the time and energy they would save if their families can afford their first washing machine, enabling girls and women to spend more time at school and freeing them up to attend college. The absence of decent roads in developing countries doesn’t matter a jot because, since the invention of the smartphone, buying and selling goods and services, issuing microfinance and keeping accounts up to date can be done on the go. The scale of future demand for nine of the world’s biggest synthetic polymers is illustrated by the chart in today's post. We forecast that global demand for the resins will this year total 299 million tonnes, up from just 79 million tonnes in 1992 which I believe was the start of the Petrochemicals Supercycle. By 2024, we predict that demand will reach 515 million tonnes – a 72% increase. The question on the exam paper is how we meet this demand in as sustainable a fashion as possible. This is going to require a new industrial revolution. Jim Fitterling, CEO of Dow Chemical, provided the best summary I have seen of the challenges that lie ahead for the chemicals industry. This was in a speech he gave in New York on 8 May. He highlighted the strain on electricity supply resulting from the growth in artificial intelligence, making it harder for the chemicals industry to secure the renewable electricity it needs to decarbonise. While it was “almost fashionable” to blame producers for plastics waste, around 3bn people around the world lacked access to basic waste management. About 95% of leakage occurs in emerging markets with underdeveloped waste management systems, he said. Demand for recycled plastics outstrips supply and was growing, but the ecosystem to collect, sort and efficiently recycle plastics waste was not keeping up, he added. Government support for these efforts would be critical – policies that preserved the many benefits of plastics while also helping eliminating waste, the CEO said. Through its history, the chemical industry had a formidable record of achievement in overcoming challenges and can do it again in making the energy transition a reality and ending plastics pollution, said the Dow CEO. Key to this was harnessing talent – not just chemical talent, but a new generation of workers who understood robotics, AI, machine learning and analytics, he said. Hear, hear! Let’s get on the with this new industrial revolution. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

17-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell sharply in May as higher mortgage rates “hammer” confidence, the National Association of Home Builders said on Wednesday. Mortgage rates averaged above 7% for the past four weeks as a lack of progress on reducing inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher, NAHB said. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell by six points from April to 45 in May – its first decline since November 2023. HMI readings below the 50 neutral mark indicate that builders are pessimistic, readings above 50 that they are optimistic. The high mortgage rates have pushed many potential buyers back to the sidelines and the market has slowed, NAHB said. Another worry are new code rules that require the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Department of Agriculture to insure mortgages for new single-family homes only if they are built to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code. This would further increase the cost of construction in a market “that sorely needs more inventory for first-time and first-generation buyers”, said NAHB chairman Carl Harris. NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz added: “The last leg in the inflation fight is to reduce shelter inflation, and this can only occur if builders are able to construct more attainable, affordable housing.” The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many others. Please also visit the ICIS construction topic page and Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Thumbnail photo source: NAHB

15-May-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US President Joe Biden is ramping up tariffs on $18 billion worth of imports from China, including electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, batteries and other goods, in a move that the White House said was a response to unfair trade practices and intended to protect US jobs. US tariffs on Chinese EVs to quadruple to 100% Targeted China products account for 4.2% of total US imports Near-term impact on China’s EV exports likely limited "Following an in-depth review by the United States Trade Representative, President Biden is taking action to protect American workers and American companies from China’s unfair trade practices," the White House said in a statement on 14 May. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce said that it "will take resolute measures to safeguards its own right and interests". “The US should immediately correct its wrong actions and cancel the additional tariff measures against China," the ministry said in a statement. There is growing concern over a potential "vicious cycle of tit-for-tat retaliatory actions" between the world's two biggest economies ahead of the US presidential elections on 5 November, Japan's Nomura Global Markets Research said in a note. EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for the environment-friendly vehicles. "With extensive subsidies and non-market practices leading to substantial risks of overcapacity, China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs) grew by 70% from 2022 to 2023—jeopardizing productive investments elsewhere," the US said. "A 100% tariff rate on EVs will protect American manufacturers from China’s unfair trade practices," it added. The new rate represented a quadruple increase from 25% previously. However, the impact on China’s EV exports may be limited in the near term, as the US constitutes a small portion of the Asian giant’s total EV shipments. According to Nomura, the US imported in 2023 $400m worth of Chinese EVs, accounting for 1% of China's total shipments to the world's biggest economy. "We expect limited near-term impact, as the targeted $18bn worth of products account for only 4.2% of total US imports from China and less than 1% of China’s total exports," the Japanese brokerage said. US-CHINA TRADE WAR ADDS TO GLOBAL JITTERS The US and China have been embroiled in a trade war since 2018, when then US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on around two-thirds of goods imported from China valued at an estimated $360 billion at the time. China has recently faced criticism from major trade partners for operating at “overcapacity,” dumping cheap products, and deepening trade relations with Russia, Nomura said. This leads to growing concerns that China may face similar trade-restrictive measures from other regions. With the EU and UK accounting for about 40% of China’s EV exports in 2023, the EV sector could face increased pressure if Europe follows the US’ lead. Although China's export growth has been strong this year due to the global tech upswing, resilient external demand, and competitive prices, rising trade tensions may hinder the export sector and prompt more supply chain relocations away from China in the long term. Late last year, the European Commission initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into China’s EVs. Europe's open approach and ambitious decarbonization goals have made it the main target market for Chinese-made EVs in 2023. The EU accounted for 30% of China's total EV export volumes last year, down from 36% in 2022, while the UK accounted for 8%, down from 10% in 2022, according to Nomura. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Aerial photo shows over 2,000 BYD Song Plus new energy vehicles to be exported at Lianyungang Port in east China's Jiangsu Province, 25 April 2024. (Shutterstock)

15-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The container ship that essentially closed the Port of Baltimore on 26 March after it struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing its collapse, is set to be moved now that the mangled remnants of the span was removed from the ship’s bow with controlled blasts on 13 May. The Key Bridge Response Unified Command (UC) used precision cuts made with small charges to remove a large section of the bridge from the Dali, which will now be refloated and moved to another part of the port. While not a big hub for chemical imports/exports, the closure of the port had some ripple effects for logistics in the region. US-based catalyst producer WR Grace said operations at its Curtis Bay Manufacturing site, located to the northwest of the collapsed bridge, have been unaffected despite its proximity to the accident site. Chemicals make up only about 4% of total tonnage that moves through the port, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The ACC said less than 1% of all chemicals involved in waterborne commerce, both domestic and trade volumes, pass through Baltimore. But Baltimore is the largest US port for handling exports and imports of vehicles and farm equipment. Since opening a fourth temporary channel into the port earlier this month, 171 commercial vessels have transited the waterway, including five of the vessels that were trapped inside the port. The MSC Passion III entered the port on 29 April, according to vesselfinder.com, making it the first container ship to enter the port since the accident. There are two container ships and a roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) vessel – designed to carry wheeled cargo – in the port on 14 May, according to vesselfinder.com. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is aiming to reopen the permanent, 700-foot-wide by 50-foot-deep federal navigation channel by the end of May, restoring port access to normal capacity. Container ships have been rerouting to other East Coast ports.

14-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The biggest plastics trade show in the Western Hemisphere returned last week after a six-year hiatus. Delegates returned to consider an industry that is increasingly being shaped by government policy which is favoring sustainability and electric vehicles (EVs) while restricting the use of some classes of chemicals that are used in processing aids. SUSTAINABLE CONTENTThe regulatory outlook is influencing companies' sustainability goals, and that is influencing which plastics they buy and which ones are made by producers. Sustainability was the most prominent theme at the show. The title of the keynote address given by BASF Corp CEO Mike Heinz was "Our Plastics Journey: The Road to Shaping a Sustainable Future". Other examples of sustainability at the show include the following: Executives from SABIC and NOVA Chemicals talked at lengths about what their companies are doing to incorporate more recycled content into their materials. Renewable plastics producers CJ CheilJedang and Danimer Scientific had booths showcasing their grades of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), a renewable polyester. GREENMANTRA showcased its chemical recycling technology, which breaks down plastics to produce waxes, which are then then uses to make additives that make it easier to incorporate waste plastic into finished products. If the exhibitor booths and keynote address weren't enough to drive home the prominence of sustainability, delegates only had to consider the recent round of talks for the UN plastic waste treaty. It was held just days before NPE. While the plastics industry is advocating curbs on pollution, several groups at the talks were pushing for curbs on production. US lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills that would impose moratoria on new plants. A small number of US states are adopting mandates that require minimum amounts of recycled content. A few states are also adopting policies calling for extended producer responsibility (EPR). The outlook of regulations is causing consumer goods producers and other plastic consumers to start seeking out sustainable materials now, so they have time to rearrange their supply chains and so prepare for the anticipated regulations. POLICIES PROMOTING EVS, LIGHTWEIGHTINGGovernment support should rekindle sales of EV and pull them out of what could be a temporary lull, according to BASF. The world will need more EVs if it wants to achieve its carbon-cutting goals. In the US, the federal government and individual states are adopting and proposing policies that will promote EV adoption. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced a new tailpipe rule that will require the US light vehicle fleet to emit progressively smaller amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2). The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles by 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. EVs have material challenges that are different from automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), and these are increasing demand for new grades of plastics. Some plastics will need to tolerate higher voltage environments, while others will need good thermal management properties. BASF and other companies at NPE showcased how several of their materials were meeting these challenges. At the same time, auto companies will want materials that will lighten their vehicles so they can travel farther on a battery charge. ICE automakers also want to lighten their vehicles, in part to comply with stricter emission requirements. Longer term, Dow highlighted the revolutionary ramifications that autonomous vehicles will have on the plastic industry. Such vehicles are driven almost entirely by machines, which should greatly reduce crashes and accidents. Dow said automakers could replace nearly all steel and aluminum paneling used in automobiles with plastic alternatives. SUBSTANCES OF CONCERNDow and Clariant highlighted the ramifications of substances of concern, so called because regulators are concerned about their effects on safety. The latest such substance include per- and poly fluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS), which are used in many polymer processing aids (PPAs). Clariant has recently introduced a hydrocarbon-based processing aid. Longer term are the possible ramifications of the prioritization process that the EPA has started on five chemicals. The regulator would like to start the prioritization process on five additional chemicals each year. The prioritization process is the first step in determining whether a chemical poses an unreasonable risk. If the EPA makes such a finding, then it will proceed with the risk management phase, in which it will propose ways to manage the unreasonable risks. If the chemicals are used in plastics, then any subsequent restrictions could cause companies to find alternative materials. EXCESS PLASTICS CAPACITYExcess plastic capacity will likely persist even as destocking ends and demand recovers. NOVA Chemicals expects future expansion will be on pause until later in the decade. Lost cost regions like North America should suffer less than higher cost regions like Europe. SABIC recently started up its first ethylene and PE production in the US through its joint venture with ExxonMobil, while announcing plans to shut down a cracker in Europe. The company did not rule out further capacity rationalizations Produced by Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), NPE: The Plastics Show took place 6-10 May in Orlando, Florida. Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows cups made out of plastic. Image by Shutterstock.

14-May-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The closure of chemical plants in Europe and elsewhere could remove essential raw material supplies, threatening the future of downstream industrial value chains. Global oversupply, driven by China, forecast to reach over 200 million tonnes/year by 2028 Interconnected value chains threatened if important raw materials cease production Globally 20 million tonnes of ethylene capacity may need to shut down to keep operating rates healthy In Europe 5.6 million tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP) capacity may need to close Integrated chemicals sites under threat if parts shut down Industry associations could help plan to maintain critical raw materials supplies Anti-dumping measures could protect exposed markets China polyvinyl chloride (PVC) overcapacity may increase exports globally In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

14-May-2024

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Chemicals distributor Univar Solutions is seeing relatively steady demand this year with greater strength on the specialties side versus industrials. Meanwhile, the North America reshoring trend is set to drive demand in later years as new manufacturing plants are built, its CEO said. “We had a good Q1. We saw modest growth in our industrial business and better growth in our ingredients and specialties business. Our results on [the latter] side would have stood out very favorably against our public peers in that space,” said David Jukes, CEO of Univar Solutions, in an interview with ICIS. Looking ahead, while a number of chemical producers expect a stronger demand pick-up in H2, there is little evidence to point to that at the moment, he pointed out. “Whether there will be a [meaningful] recovery in H2, I don’t see what that’s based on, other than hope. Hope is not a strategy and so we’re managing our business very carefully,” said Jukes. “We have grounds for optimism that we’re going to see some growth, irrespective of what the market does. Whether the market will have a H2 recovery, I have absolutely no idea. I think that’s based on, ‘It’s got to get better some day’. If it does, that’s great but I’m not banking on that. We think our future is very much in our own hands,” he added. Univar has improved its reliable delivery performance and customer NPS (net promoter scores) to record levels, with its digital channels helping to keep customer business “stickier”, as well as attract new customers, the CEO said. Demand for durables continues to lag, and there is no surge of restocking yet. “Consumers don’t think the economy is going very well… That’s [US President Joe] Biden’s problem right now. No matter how much you say it, consumers aren’t seeing it. Airline tickets and hotel rooms may be expensive, but refrigerators and cars are still on discount,” said Jukes. “We’re through all the destocking of last year but you’re not seeing wholesale restocking. You’re seeing people buying for what they need today and what they need for tomorrow [rather than longer term],” he added. Univar’s fast and reliable service model can help customers stock up when they need it, but one consequence is that it does not have solid medium-term visibility since customers are not ordering for six months from now, he pointed out. “We’re seeing steady demand. People are not expecting prices to fall and not expecting them to rise, and are buying things as they need them. If something fundamental changes in demand patterns, it would be nice, but we don’t bank on that,” said Jukes. HEIGHTENED COMPETITION LEADS TO INNOVATIONA more competitive market in chemicals is leading to greater demand for innovation when it comes to formulations, the CEO said. “When markets get highly competitive as they are now, the specialty players look for ways to differentiate their products. Our formulation labs and kitchens, and our applications development people are really busy being innovative,” said Jukes. “People will want to change a formulation, and create something different as a way of getting competitive advantage, particularly as you think about having more sustainable products in those portfolios. We’re seeing a lot of activity and growth in this area,” he added, pointing to more innovation taking place in the specialties and ingredients area. RESHORING/NEARSHORINGMeanwhile, the reshoring/nearshoring trend is pointed to boost demand for chemicals in North America in the coming years, with some impact already kicking in, he said. “This is happening, and macroeconomics and global events are feeding into that, whether it’s Red Sea disruptions, worsening relations with China or [turmoil] in the Middle East. We’re having them all at once at the moment, so there is a heightened trend to that reshoring and nearshoring,” said Jukes. “Some of that we won’t see the full impact of, for a couple of years because it takes time to build the infrastructure. But certainly for our North America business, we are seeing good signs, and that will only pick up over the coming years,” he added. DOMESTIC SOURCING AND TARIFFSFor many years, Univar has deliberately sourced the vast majority of its products domestically. Thus, even being a global distributor, the rising trend of protectionism through tariffs is not a major concern. “It’s been a deliberate strategy for us for a number of years… What it does create are some opportunities for us to move domestically sourced product for people who are being impacted by it. That tends to be some of the smaller companies,” said Jukes. “We source domestically and sometimes that means you perhaps find yourself on the wrong side of a very competitive product that’s coming in, but we’re not running this business for this month. You’ve got to take a longer view on this – you can’t live from transaction to transaction,” he added, noting that Univar is celebrating its 100th year anniversary this year. “We’ve taken a much more longer-term strategic view, and it’s served us well,” said Jukes. North America accounts for 75-80% of Univar’s sales, with Europe at 20-25%. The distributor also has a very small presence in China. Interview article by Joseph Chang

13-May-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the latest demand shifts in the smartphone market. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

13-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global rates for shipping containers are surging, liquid chemical tanker rates were mixed, and wait times at the Panama Canal have eased, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Container rates surged this week after rising last week for the first time since January amid general rate increases (GRIs) implemented because of rising demand and as continued Red Sea diversions have overall capacity fully deployed. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during a Q1 earnings conference call that demand is trending toward the higher end of its guidance. Average global rates surged by 16% over the week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Meanwhile, rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast jumped by 18%, and rates from Shanghai to the East Coast soared by 16%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects freight rates ex-China to continue increasing in the upcoming week amid a huge demand spike and tight capacity. Capacity is growing from newly built ships, according to international freight platform ShipHub, who said that 2.83m 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container ship capacity is on order for 2024, after 2.34m TEUs were ordered in 2023. That is almost double the capacity added in 2021 and 2022, which were both around 1.1m TEUs. Shipping analysts Linerlytica said that over-capacity concerns are on the backburner with containership diversions to the Cape route effectively removing more than 7% of the total fleet. Rates from North China to the US Gulf were flat this week after spiking the previous week, as shown in the following chart from ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were mostly unchanged but fell from the US Gulf (USG) to ARA. From the USG to Rotterdam, there are bits of part cargo space still available for April. This trade lane has been mostly quiet over the last few weeks. If this trend continues, this route could face further downward pressure. On the other hand, from the USG to the Caribbean, rates have risen slightly since last week leaving the market overall mixed. Methanol continues to be active out of this market to various destinations. From the USG to Brazil, space remains tight despite the slow market as only a handful of indications being seen in the market.  Space is available for H1 May out of Columbia and H2 May out of the USG. Although ICIS does not assess spot rates from the USG to the Mediterranean, this trade lane has continued to tighten up, with several cargoes of Glycols, Caustic and Veg Oil fixed. There is limited space for May which may likely cause rates to further tighten, although there could be some working space for June. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit fell for both northbound and southbound transits this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times a week ago were 4.4 days for northbound traffic and 6.5 days for southbound vessels. The PCA will increase the number of slots available for Panamax vessels to transit the waterway beginning 16 May and will add another slot for Neopanamax vessels on 1 June based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake. PORT OF BALTIMORE The Key Bridge Response Unified Command (UC) is scheduled to use precision cuts made with small charges to remove a large section of the Francis Scott Key Bridge wreckage from on top of the container ship Dali, which struck the bridge on 26 March and caused its collapse. Source: Key Bridge Response 2024 The exact time of the precision cuts will depend on multiple environmental and operational factors. The closing of the port did not have a significant impact on the chemicals industry as chemicals make up only about 4% of total tonnage that moves through the port, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The ACC said less than 1% of all chemicals involved in waterborne commerce, both domestic and trade volumes, pass through Baltimore. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

10-May-2024