Quota cheating, lack of investment in oil infrastructure and incredibly low domestic gasoline and other oil-product prices mean that Iran could be forced to exit oil export markets by as early as 2015, according to Roger Stern of John Hopkins University.
The government would be under threat if local prices were jacked up. Cutting back on oil exports would make it hard for Iran to balance its books.
If Stern is right, this makes investments in Iran”s gas-based petrochemicals seem even more risky.
Oh and by the way, there’s the slight problem of the affect on global prices if Iran is forced to quit exports.
