CHINA’S net LLDPE imports could average 6.5m tonnes a year of just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030
Asian Chemical Connections
Why China’s HDPE net imports could average just 700,000 tonnes per year in 2024-2030
RIGOROUS scenario planning is essential for China’s net import flows in 2024-2030
Three scenarios for China’s PE demand in 2024-2030 and the effects on global operating rates
UNDER all the scenarios, growth set to decline to the low single digits from 10% in 1992-2023.
How Europe can avoid “sleepwalking” towards offshoring of petrochemicals
Neither Supermajors nor Deglobalisation are inevitable. Outcomes will instead be set by many individual choices that are coordinated in the rights ways. In other words, it is within the gift of Europe to wake up from Jim Ratcliffe’s “sleepwalk”.
Record levels of oversupply and the “Doublespeak” of the old market language
China CFR PE price spreads hit new record low in 2024
Scenarios for China PP trade flows underline the end of the Supercycle and many more new complexities
A MUCH MORE complex world requires better scenario-planning.
China PP price spreads over naphtha hit new low as the long-term shift in markets continues
China block copolymer and raffia-grade price spreads between 2022 and 26 January this year were 144% lower than their long-term average with injection grade spreads 145% lower.
CFR China PE spreads hit a new record low because of all-time high oversupply
So far in 2024, despite supply tighter than it was in December last year, the average per tonne CFR China PE price spread over CFR Japan naphtha costs has fallen to its lowest annual level since we began our price assessments way back in 1993. 2022 and 2023 were the previous record lows.
Global demographics shape polyethylene demand yesterday, today and tomorrow
DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
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