IN THE FIRST OF a special series of blog posts, I am going to examine Turkey’s chemicals and polymers demand growth prospects. This will be followed by posts on Vietnam, Mexico, India, Brazil and Indonesia.
These will be amongst the countries in the Developing World ex-China region that will eventually replace China as the main drivers of global chemicals demand.
Chemicals companies need to decide where they are heading now that the Supercycle is over
The light blue bars show the impact of a Dire Demographics scenario on China’s polymers demand
DON’T just back and wait for markets to correct themselves
THE TEN REASONS why this isn’t a standard chemical industry downcycle
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
THERE ARE TWO scenarios or roads down which the petrochemicals industry could travel over the next ten years, with arrival either at Supermajors or Deglobalisation.
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
