By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
As China coal shortages end, polyolefins margins reach historic lows on oversupply
By John Richardson AGAIN, DON’T say I didn’t tell you. In my 11 October blog post, having talked to people who know what they are talking about, I flagged up the possibility that China’s energy shortages could be fixed a lot quicker than many people were suggesting. Those in the know about China told me […]
Dip in Chinese PP exports only temporary with Q1 2022 resurgence looking likely
By John Richardson TRADE DATA when combined with price assessments, supply and demand estimates and market intelligence is the modern-day equivalent of alchemy with a rather important difference: we can genuinely convert numbers and conversations with the market into gold, unlike the bogus science of alchemy. A great example is the chart below, the first […]
After the COP26 disappointment, the “blame game” will get us nowhere
The implications of last week’s disappointing COP26 meeting in Glasgow are so complex and so numerous that is going to take more than one blog post to provide adequate coverage. In this first post, I look at the failure of COP26 to agree on a global carbon tax, in my view essential, and discuss the […]
New China HDPE import scenarios for 2021-2031 in the context of Common Prosperity
By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
China’s “Common prosperity” uncertainties multiply as we head into the unknown
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t warn you. This article in The Wall Street Journal confirms my warning that Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” reforms would face resistance from vested interests. China’s president Xi is having to dial back plans for the introduction of widespread property taxes, according to WSJ. “China has experimented with a […]
China provides major climate hope as latest IEA report underlines that it is all about the developing world
By John Richardson WHEN I worked for a UK local newspaper as a “cub” or junior reporter in the 1980s, there was a major international air crash. “Find out if there was anyone from our city on the flight,” my news editor instructed me. In my naivete, and because of lack of training, I was […]
China pulls multiple policy levers to fix energy shortages but don’t forget secular fall in demand
By John Richardson Executive Summary CHINA’S POWER shortages could fixed by the end of this month or early November, I was told by a senior polyolefins industry source. Three other contacts concurred. My contacts could be wrong, of course. A coal trader quoted by Reuters said that the energy shortages could continue throughout the fourth […]
What global petchems demand would have been like without the China property bubble warns us about the future
By John Richardson PLAYING “What if?” games by changing the course of history is popular amongst students of the subject, including myself. Imagine, therefore, in our world of petrochemicals, if China hadn’t decided in late 2008 to launch the world’s biggest-ever economic stimulus package to compensate for the Global Financial Crisis. Beijing felt it had […]
Whether Beijing blinks over Evergrande is the biggest issue for global petchems
By John Richardson WILL BEIJING blink? The answer to this question could pretty much set the direction of the global petrochemicals industry over the next six to 12 months. In my view, the question over whether the Chinese government will relax its clampdown on local real estate, which Bank of America estimates accounts for 28% […]
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