Every tonne of polymer you decide not to produce because there isn’t a viable market will save vital revenues – especially as feedstock costs will remain very volatile. Every tonne of polymer you do produce because the market works will earn you crucial money at a time of declining overall sales.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s HDPE prices recover but spreads tell the real story as prospects dim for next year
CHINA HDPE injection grade prices over naphtha feedstock costs are the lowest this year since our price assessments began in 1990
China PP spreads data continue to show no recovery, weakest market since at least 2003
UNTIL WE SEE a recovery in China PP-naphtha spreads during around a 12-month period to close to long-term annual averages, there will have been no complete rebound in the market. The spread so far this year at just $264/tonne is 41% lower than the previous lowest year of $447/tonne in 2012.
HDPE and PP prices outside China continue to fall towards China levels
HDPE and PP pricing in key market outside China continues to fall towards levels in China, the blog’s new weekly index shows
China’s styrene demand in 2022 could be negative for the first time since 1990
China’s net styrene imports in 2022 could also fall to just 290,000 tonnes from 1.5m tonnes in 2021 and 2.8m tonnes in 2020.
If you think this is a typical chemicals downcycle, think again
THERE IS A FEELING out there that the chemicals and polymers industry is undergoing a typical downcycle that will last a few years, followed by yet another spectacular fly-up in margins. But I believe a great deal more is happening beyond the usual cycles of over-building followed by under-building.
China’s LLDPE demand weakness continues as net import prospects weaken
China’s LLDPE demand is in line to fall by 4% this year with its net imports 800,000 tonnes lower. This would follow a 1.1m tonne decline in net imports in 2021 over 2020.
Latest China PP spreads, margin and demand data show market remains at multi-decade lows
The average China PP price spread in 2022 up until 19 August, was just $262/tonne. This compares with the previous annual record low of $430/tonne in 2003.
European PE pricing, margins and spreads versus China and the risks of a correction to long-term historic patterns
THE CHEMICALS AND polymers world is behaving in ways that our industry has probably never seen before. A good example are the relationships between European and Chinese PE pricing
China PE demand may fall by 5% this year with net imports 3.2m tonnes lower
ANY short-term recovery in China’s PE and PP markets will likely be driven by supply and not demand. Local supply could become tighter on refinery rate cuts. Refineries have reduced production because of weak gasoline and diesel demand.
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