I was chatting to my good friend and contact Paul Hodges of International eChem yesterday.He believes we’ve entered globalisation part II, where the impact of higher raw material prices will trigger harmful inflation. As Ben Bernanke has pointed out, oil prices are 40% higher than would otherwise have been the case without the recent boom […]
Asian Chemical Connections
This is not the time to behave like an Ostrich
The United Nations report on climate change, released last Friday, warned of 50 million made homeless as a result of global warming by as early as 2010. Reports such as this will serve to pile even more pressure on the big polluters including, of course, China – the mothership of chemical demand growth. Any investor […]
Oops a daisy, here we go again
A boring topic to harp on about again I know, but this article from my colleague Nigel Davis from the Insight section of ICIS news supports what I have been saying for the past two years. The industry has overbuilt, and despite all the optimism engendered by project delays and probably cancellations in Iran of […]
What’s the point in building a plant if you’ve got nobody to run it?
No point obviously. As this report from Deutsche Bank Download file notes, the global skills shortage is not just in the west. In the engineering sector, and perhaps this applies to petrochemicals, Deutsche Bank claims that the huge outpouring of Indian and Chinese graduates is grossly exaggerated; and it adds that the quality of graduates […]
The case for investing in Indonesia
Indonesia before 1997 had three cracker projects and huge demand growth. It was mentioned in the same breath as China. And, of course, then came the crisis. But this year GDP growth could be the highest since the crisis with the government in sound financial condition. The case for petrochemical investment is obvious as monomers […]
Could drug dealers be rehabilitated into the petchem industry?
An interesting question, and one that Def Poet Tommy Buttons, the rap artist with a difference (he has a brain) might want to address. Click on this highly amusing link and listen to how he compares the life of a drugs dealer with that of a Nasdeq trader. Substitute Nasdeq trader for a petrochemicals trader […]
The flawed art of supply & demand forecasting
A guest blog – see Vanishing Post Boxes on this great blog by the authors of the book Freakonomics put me in mind of all those demand and supply forecasts that are invariably wrong. Yes, I know I’ve written about this ad nauseum – see my last article on this subject.But surely, there has to […]
Is Thailand heading for the rocks?
A huge amount of petrochemical capacity – some $12bn worth – is being built in Thailand, way in excess of the quantity added before the Asian financial crisis. This is all predicated on Thailand becoming a manufacturing hub for Southeast Asia with, for example, huge ambitions to grow auto production. But can Thailand attract the […]
Is Indonesia poised to take off?
I can just about remember when Indonesia was talked about in the same breath as China – huge latent demand, lots of foreign direct investment and great natural resources. Then came the Asian financial crisis and economic ruin. But now, as this article from the Economist indicates, the government had paid off its debt to […]
Bringing the sceptics and the greenies together
The famous “Skeptical” environmentalist (unfortunately, the American spelling and therefore the wrong spelling), Bjorn Lomborg argues against the Kyoto Protocol in this article from the special green edition of our magazine, ICIS Chemical Business.He says, in short, that all the fuss about Kyoto is a waste of time and effort. Even if it is fully […]
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