Chemicals companies need to decide where they are heading now that the Supercycle is over
Asian Chemical Connections
Stop wasting time waiting for the end of the downcycle
THE TEN REASONS why this isn’t a standard chemical industry downcycle
Petrochemicals three years from now: A shrinking global market?
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
China events suggest no global petchems recovery until 2026
Capacity growth of just 1.6m tonnes a year versus our base case of 5m tonnes a year would require substantial capacity closures in some regions. Closures are never easy and so take considerable time because of links with upstream refineries, environmental clean-up and redundancy costs – and the reluctance to be the “first plant out” in case markets suddenly recover.
Petrochemicals after the Supercycle: Revised scenarios
LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
South Korea petrochemicals: Challenges and opportunities
SOUTH KOREA needs to transform its petrochemicals and polymers exports through reduced exposure to China and improved sustainability
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
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