SOUTH KOREA needs to transform its petrochemicals and polymers exports through reduced exposure to China and improved sustainability
Asian Chemical Connections
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
How Europe can avoid “sleepwalking” towards offshoring of petrochemicals
Neither Supermajors nor Deglobalisation are inevitable. Outcomes will instead be set by many individual choices that are coordinated in the rights ways. In other words, it is within the gift of Europe to wake up from Jim Ratcliffe’s “sleepwalk”.
Global demographics shape polyethylene demand yesterday, today and tomorrow
DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Global HDPE capacity may have to be 13m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return to healthy operating rates
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
China, demographics, debt and polymers demand
China’s polymers consumption in 2022 107m tonnes from a population of 1.4bn. The developing world ex-China’s consumption was at 84m tonnes from a population of 5.3bn. And the developed world consumed 82m from 1.1bn people.