By John Richardson THROUGH the narrow lens of stand-alone cost competitiveness, the threatened refinery and petrochemicals complex in Grangemouth, Scotland the UK, (see picture) can be viewed as having a very questionable long-term future. For example, Britain’s refineries are viewed as small, old and lacking in sophistication. And it can be argued that they are […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global Petchem Markets Turn Bearish
By John Richardson EXCESSIVE inventory building down all the major petrochemical value chains is a global rather than just a Chinese problem, according to Paul Satchell – the UK-based chemicals analyst with global investment bank Canaccord Genuity in his latest Volume Proxy research note. “The Volume Proxy continues to decline, with the index now in clear […]
European Demographics Challenge US Export Assumptions
By John Richardson US feedstock advantages appear to provide an almost overwhelming case for a big wave of cracker and downstream investments, particularly in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). In contrast, Europe is struggling with much-higher feedstock costs and low economic growth, resulting in the possibility of many more capacity closures. Only last week, for […]
Germany’s Long-term Economic Challenges
Source of graph: Eurostat By John Richardson AS delegates gather for this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Berlin, which takes place on 5-9 October, it might be tempting to believe that Europe has turned the corner. Supporting this argument has been the release of lots of positive economy data recently. For example, […]
Analyse The Data And Listen To Li Keqiang
By John Richardson IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism. Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data. Exports were up by 7.2% from year earlier, and were 5.1% higher than in July […]
More People Wanting To Buy Than Sell
By John Richardson SOME people in the petrochemicals industry are showing great confidence in the future. Perhaps it is no coincidence that several of these people are said to be Chinese domestic traders in polyethylene (PE) and mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) who might have long positions to protect. But if PE is in genuinely wonderful shape, […]
China Synthetic Fibres Recovery Questionable
By John Richardson THERE has been a strong recovery in China’s synthetic fibres value chain since May of this year, according to Becky Zhang, our excellent ICIS pricing Asian fibre intermediates and synthetic fibres editor, who keeps her finger firmly on the pulse of the market. Becky attributes the rebound to: Reports of stronger textile […]
Listen To The Iconoclasts
By John Richardson Does your company employ an independent economist who forms her or his own view of where China is heading, or does it instead just accept the conventional wisdom dished up by the big institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? A management consultant we spoke […]
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