DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Global ethylene capacity growth would need to be 90% lower than the ICIS base case for healthy 2024-2030 operating rates
The blue line in the above chart involves annual average capacity growing at just 800,000 tonnes/year in each of the years between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case assumption of 7m tonnes/year of capacity growth during each of the years.
Supermajors versus Deglobalisation scenarios: The impact on petrochemicals and recycling
THERE ARE TWO scenarios or roads down which the petrochemicals industry could travel over the next ten years, with arrival either at Supermajors or Deglobalisation.
The scale of plans to turn oil into petrochemicals may radically reshape this industry
A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
The “National Champions” in the New Petrochemicals Landscape
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
A fundamental shift in thinking on petrochemical plant closures
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
Details of how Saudi Aramco COTC and other advantaged feedstock projects could redraw the petrochemicals map
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
Winners and losers as demographics, debt, sustainability, geopolitics and crude-to-chemicals rewrite the rules of success
I BELIEVE WE are heading for the biggest period of change in the global petrochemicals industry since the 1990s.
This was when globalisation took off with the formation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), when China’s economic boom began, when the global population was more youthful and before climate change became a major threat to growth.
Global HDPE capacity may have to be 13m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return to healthy operating rates
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.