Chemicals companies need to decide where they are heading now that the Supercycle is over
Asian Chemical Connections
Stop wasting time waiting for the end of the downcycle
THE TEN REASONS why this isn’t a standard chemical industry downcycle
Don’t put sustainability in a broom cupboard in the basement
How the chemicals world could re-align as sustainability becomes a new route to competitive advantage
Petrochemicals three years from now: A shrinking global market?
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
Petrochemicals after the Supercycle: Revised scenarios
LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
As China volume growth is no longer guaranteed, focus on growing value
THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
The scale of plans to turn oil into petrochemicals may radically reshape this industry
A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
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