By John Richardson IN a special series of blog posts over the next few weeks we will re-examine the outlook for the major Asian petrochemical producing countries, ex-China. The posts won’t necessarily appear every day, as important news events may require immediate analysis, but our aim is to finish the series by mid-October. Last month, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Thailand: Build A Contingency Plan
Source: Petroleum Institute of Thailand By John Richardson IT can be argued that Thailand is in a better state than fellow ASEAN members Indonesia and Malaysia. Government spending in Thailand relative to GDP is said to be lower than in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Compared with Malaysia, Thailand also has a larger working-age population, […]
Malaysia: Taking The Long View
Source: Malaysia Petrochemicals Association By John Richardson THE problems in Malaysia have been evident for a long time. But thanks to the irresponsible and failed actions of the US Fed, the flow of funds into the Southeast country had led to a papering-over of the cracks in its economic growth model. The same, as […]
Indonesia: Sweat It Out!
Jakarta at night (source of picture: Wikimedia) By John Richardson THE blog first visited Indonesia in October 1997, shortly after the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis, and was amazed to think that only a few months earlier, the media was talking of the inevitable rise of Indonesia’s middle class, which was said to […]
Asia, The Fed And Swimming Naked
By John Richardson WHEN the tide eventually goes out, we will find out who has been swimming naked. This will also be the case in several emerging markets, ex-China, when the Fed eventually draws down its stimulus. Hot money seeking higher returns has flowed into India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia, for example, […]
It Is Just Too Difficult
Smart bottles By John Richardson THERE is a growing concern amongst some polyolefin industry executives that, despite the economic problems first in China and now India, there is still a great deal of enthusiasm for adding new capacity, as we discuss in this ICIS Insight article. “Now that China has weakened, everybody has switched […]
Indonesia’s Challenges
By John Richardson INDONESIA was the subject of much enthusiasm when the blog hosted a webinar on Monday on China Polyolefins Markets. We will provide a link to a recorded version of the event shortly. The reason for the enthusiasm over Indonesia is perhaps because China, and now quite likely India, no longer guarantee strong growth. […]
Southeast Asia’s Export Dependency
Source: Petroleum Institute of Thailand By John Richardson THERE is a lot of excitement about the self-sustaining nature of Southeast Asia’s (SEA) economy thanks to, for example, nine consecutive quarters of GDP growth of more than 6% in Indonesia and rising domestic consumption across the region. But, as we discuss in this Insight article […]
China Compensation
By John Richardson A MAJOR Southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) producer has reduced its percentage of exports to China from 30-40% in 2012 to just 10% so far this year, a source with the producer told the blog on the sidelines of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Taipei. This is further confirmation of the […]
Taiwan Growth Underlines Long Term Shift
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that China is no longer acting as the growth engine of the world, because it is too busy dealing with internal adjustments, is mounting. For example, on Tuesday of this week Taiwan announced that its year-on-year Q1 2013 GDP growth had fallen to just 1.5%. This was less than half of […]
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