By John Richardson THE THING is, as I discussed in my 9 February blog post, we simply do not have our hands on the data. Unless we improve our access to data, and greatly ramp up our ability to process and analyse the numbers, the petrochemicals industry will remain largely in the dark on demand. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why it is obvious few, in any, conventional steam crackers will start-up after 2030
By John Richardson I SAID TO a contact earlier this week that it was remarkable that a senior executive at a petrochemicals company thought few, if any, conventionally built steam crackers would come online after 2030. His response was, “of course, that’s obvious”. But from the perspective of some other industry executives, the future is […]
The new oil shocks: semiconductor supply shortages threaten the global economy
By John Richardson HIGH VALUE semiconductors, which are defined as five nanometres (billionths of a metre) or less in size, have become the new oil – as vital as the black stuff for the workings of the global economy. Semiconductors will, in fact, become even more important as the age of oil comes to an […]
China’s economic dominance carries many short and long-term risks for petrochemicals
By John Richardson JUST 5% of US companies with revenues of more than $500m plan to relocate operations out of China, according to the latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. This partly reflects highly networked manufacturing clusters, wrote the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in this excellent article. “Automotive and electronics clusters […]
Petrochemical companies must invest more in new methods of assessing demand
By John Richardson INVESTORS must look beyond measures of GDP growth if they are going to understand what is really happening in the global economy, wrote James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse, in the Financial Times. “Body temperatures, foot traffic, internet trends and stimulus cheque arrivals represent a small sample of the data that […]
The energy transition and how it will define tomorrow’s petrochemical Winners
By John Richardson MOST OF the time historical events move at a snail’s pace. The metaphorical tectonic plates are still moving but they are invisible to most of us. Stress then suddenly overcomes friction, as with earthquakes, and events gallop ahead. Take the Cold War as an example where both sides were locked […]
Collapsing battery costs point to ever-declining forecasts for oil demand
By John Richardson THE END of the oil age is arriving. Sooner than many people think, demand for oil in transportation will collapse. And as the environmental benefits of switching to electric vehicles become more and more apparent, we will look back and wonder “Why on earth did we use oil?”, just as we already […]
Sustainability means reducing carbon emissions as well as plastic waste
By John Richardson THIS IS VERY much a personal plea to our industry about what I see as the biggest challenge we face in 2021 and beyond: carbon and other greenhouse gases. “We need to rebrand climate change as the climate crisis,” a source who works for an oil, gas and petrochemical company has been […]
Risks ahead for global polypropylene much greater than for polyethylene
By John Richardson THERE SEEMS to be few risks ahead for the global polyethylene (PE) market over the next five years. The internet sales boom, despite all the talk about using less plastic for sustainability reasons, promises to provide strong support for consumption. The average internet sale is dropped 17 times before delivery, providing a […]
Sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – how petchem companies respond will define their success
Just to stress again that this blog represents my personal views and not those if ICIS. By John Richardson YOU WILL NEED to constantly debate the details of the megatrends as they will very often change entirely. And whilst today’s four megatrends – sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – will remain unchanged, their relative […]
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