RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
Asian Chemical Connections
China 2022 PE demand: latest data point towards a 2% contraction as confusion over outlook builds
January-April 2022 data point towards China’s polyethylene demand for the full year declining by 2% over 2021.
China’s post-lockdown economic rebound has yet to happen, according to the ICIS spreads data
At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
China’s ethylene equivalent demand growth in 2022 could be as high as plus 9% or as low as minus 3%
Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
Big divergence between Europe PE and PP markets continue, creating seller and buyer opportunities
REGULAR readers of the blog will know that I first highlighted the big polyolefins market divergence in April 2021. Back then, I said that:
Asia and Middle East producers needed to sell more to Europe.
Buyers should secure more resin supplies from Asia.
Global chemicals face negative growth on inflation, more logistics problems and a deep China downturn
SUPPLY-CHAIN problems continue to disrupt the global chemicals and polymer industries more than two years since the pandemic began.
Right now, the centre of attention of supply-chain anxiety is China.
US domestic PE logistics challenges may create bigger opportunity for other producers in Europe
US PE exports could be restricted in 2022 by local logistics challenges as China’s imports decline as its economy suffers a recession. The centre of attention for Asian and Middle exporters may therefore be Europe.
Europe HDPE: why net imports could be 3m tonnes higher this year
EUROPE’S NET HDPE imports could be as high as 4.1m tonnes in 2022 versus last year’s 1.1m tonnes.
China’s 2022 PE growth may be minus 3% with net imports declining by 29%
I AM JUST about clinging to a base case of positive China polyethylene (PE) demand growth in 2022 because China has a great track record of turning its economy around after short periods of weaker growth. But this time could be different.
Major China PE and PP rate cuts fail to halt slide in spreads to historic lows
Reductions in production seem to have been forced by the logistics and demand challenges caused by Zero-COVID.