IF THERE IS no return to the historic patterns of spreads between China’s petrochemicals prices and feedstock costs, there will be no economic recovery.
Asian Chemical Connections
Chemicals companies face an unprecedented demand and supply crisis
THE GLOBAL CHEMICALS industry is, I believe, facing a demand and supply crisis on a scale and on a level of complexity that nobody has experienced before. This is a huge subjects requiring a series of posts. Let me start by looking at China’s role in this crisis. In later posts.
China’s latest LLDPE spread and demand data offer worrying clarity about the broader economy
THE LATEST DATA on linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) China CFR (cost & freight) pricing spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs underlines the evidence from the other grades of polyolefins, that China is a long way from a full economic recovery.
China LDPE demand could fall by as much as 8% this year with net imports 500,000 tonnes lower
CHIINA’S LDPE spreads over naphtha feedstock costs have held up very well this. But this doesn’t mean to say that demand is good. Chinese demand could fall by as much as 8% in 2022.
Polyolefins pricing data suggest China still hasn’t recovered
Comparative PE and PP pricing data between Vietnam and southeast asia – and the “spreads” numbers between China PE and PP prices and naphtha costs – suggest the China economy has yet to recover.
Food crisis in 2023 may represent major threat to developing-world polymers demand
High-density polyethylene (HDPE) demand in the developing world in 2023 could contract by 300,000 tonnes, rather than, as in our base case, grow by 800,000 tonnes because of the food crisis.
Assuming all the other regions grew as under our base case, global growth would be 2% in 2023 rather than our base case of 4%.
China naphtha-to-polyolefins spreads data still show recovery yet to happen
RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
China 2022 PE demand: latest data point towards a 2% contraction as confusion over outlook builds
January-April 2022 data point towards China’s polyethylene demand for the full year declining by 2% over 2021.
China’s post-lockdown economic rebound has yet to happen, according to the ICIS spreads data
At some point, polyolefins exporters to China and the local producers will regain pricing power. This will become apparent from a widening of spreads as economic activity returns to normal. It really is as simple as this. So, you need our data and analysis.
Big divergence between Europe PE and PP markets continue, creating seller and buyer opportunities
REGULAR readers of the blog will know that I first highlighted the big polyolefins market divergence in April 2021. Back then, I said that:
Asia and Middle East producers needed to sell more to Europe.
Buyers should secure more resin supplies from Asia.
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