In my previous post, I talked about the collapse of the Doha round of trade negotiations and how this didn’t auger well for a new global agreement for setting greenhouse gas-emission limits and a worldwide price on carbon. The chemicals industry needs clarity. A global price for carbon would enable companies to plan R&D investments […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Market mind reading
Regular readers of my blog might have seen last week’s post linking through to the New Scientist article about research into new ways of assessing how markets behave. Prompted by the irrationally steep falls triggered by the credit crisis (or maybe they were reverse – the previous high valuations were based on irrationality, leading to […]
Crazy money breeds new thinking
This article from The New Scientist suggests we might have to develop a whole new way of asssesing what drives all commodity markets. Intuitively, everyone knows that the herd instinct matters. But to measure this mathematically, or statistically, seems a mountainous but fascinating challenge. At least it will keep the a few academics off the […]
It’s a whole new ball game
First of all, apologies to readers for my complete neglect of this blog over the last six weeks. I can only plead overwork and being too stunned by the collapse of the global economy to think about the blogosphere. I promise regular posts from now on, provided I am not once again dazzled by the […]
The search for more basic petrochemicals
Very interesting speech from Alan Kirkley, Vice President of Strategy and Portfolio for Shell Chemicals, which first of all goes over the predictable ground of where we are in the cycle and the threat from the Middle East. However, he then makes the valid point – which I made earlier this week – that the […]
History will surely repeat itself
The mood at the recent NPRA International Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas, was mixed, despite all the economic gloom. Some producers said they were still making money – especially those selling into manufacturing sectors benefiting from a rise in exports due to the weak dollar. What’s certain, of course, though is that things will […]
Is the last margin grab over?
Shortly after I wrote this article (see below) on the doom and gloom surrounding China polyolefins markets, hey presto, prices rallied and I was wondering whether I needed to be wiping egg off my face. But shortly after the slight rally occurred, a polyolefins trade told me it was likely to be the last margin […]
China growth under severe threat
I could easily be accused of ceaseless pessimism, but growth in China is moderating – regardless of what your view is of the extended article below on the impact of the bad-weather crisis. Slowing exports were already eating into estimates of GDP growth, and these estimates surely what companies can expect in chemical export volumes […]
Here we go again – 1997 is back…..
I sincerely hope not, but all the signs are there because of: *A financial crisis which nobody again saw coming, this time with global implications *What could prove to be too much spending on new equipment and capacity. This time high equity prices have paid for these investments rather than US dollar-denominated bank loans, as […]
China coal to benzene threatens
With naphtha prices so high, heavy aromatics and pygas feedstock for producing benzene are not only expensive but are also in tight supply due to operating rate cutbacks. Longer term also, as we’ve already discussed here, there are major doubts over whether China will produce enough naphtha to operate all the petrochemical projects it is […]
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