New China stimulus in 2025 seems unlikely to be able to fully address long-term economic challenges
Asian Chemical Connections
China, global chemical trade flows and the need for better analysis
THERE is nothing new in this pattern in the case of some of these polymers. What’s new could be the willingness to absorb Chinese surpluses
Tariffs, infinite improbabilities and US PE exports to China
The US has gained lots of ground in China because of lower import tariffs and its strong production-cost position. What happens next
The developing world outside China to the rescue, but not for a long time
A full recovery next year? If you think this is likely, then think again
China’s recent economic stimulus barely registers on PE margins
CHINA’S RECENT economic stimulus has failed ot turn around record low PE margins
China PP sales turnover collapses by $4.6bn after the end of the Supercycle
LOSSES ACROSS China’s top ten trading partners in PP totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102m.
Your new China stimulus noise-cancelling headphones: PE spreads and margins
UNTIL or unless margins and spreads return to normal, there will have been no China recovery
Global ethylene 12 months later: Nothing seems to have changed
What would it take to return global operating rates to the very healthy 1992-2023 average of 88%? Global capacity would have to grow by an average of around 2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 6.2m tonnes a year.
The China story is consistent even in higher-value polycarbonate
BECAUSE OF events in China. global polycarbonate operating rates can only return to normal if 2024-2030 capacity declines by a total of 1m tonnes/year.
Alice in Wonderland, the Cheshire cat and the chemicals industry
Chemicals companies need to decide where they are heading now that the Supercycle is over
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