A full recovery next year? If you think this is likely, then think again
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s recent economic stimulus barely registers on PE margins
CHINA’S RECENT economic stimulus has failed ot turn around record low PE margins
China PP sales turnover collapses by $4.6bn after the end of the Supercycle
LOSSES ACROSS China’s top ten trading partners in PP totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102m.
Your new China stimulus noise-cancelling headphones: PE spreads and margins
UNTIL or unless margins and spreads return to normal, there will have been no China recovery
Global ethylene 12 months later: Nothing seems to have changed
What would it take to return global operating rates to the very healthy 1992-2023 average of 88%? Global capacity would have to grow by an average of around 2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 6.2m tonnes a year.
The China story is consistent even in higher-value polycarbonate
BECAUSE OF events in China. global polycarbonate operating rates can only return to normal if 2024-2030 capacity declines by a total of 1m tonnes/year.
Alice in Wonderland, the Cheshire cat and the chemicals industry
Chemicals companies need to decide where they are heading now that the Supercycle is over
China’s demographic crisis: Implications for polymers demand
The light blue bars show the impact of a Dire Demographics scenario on China’s polymers demand
Global styrene markets reflect permanent changes in the chemicals landscape
DON’T just back and wait for markets to correct themselves
Stop wasting time waiting for the end of the downcycle
THE TEN REASONS why this isn’t a standard chemical industry downcycle
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