By John Richardson THE US oil, gas and petrochemicals sectors are drowning in an excess of credit that has distorted rational analysis of long-term supply and demand fundamentals. So, just as is the case with China manufacturing in general, these misguided investments are in danger of contributing to a prolonged period of global deflation. Let’s […]
Asian Chemical Connections
More Evidence That US Shale Oil Is The New “Swing Producer”
By John Richardson SICK today with a bad cold – hence this very short post. Will, hopefully, be back in full action, though, later today or tomorow Meanwhile, here is some more background reading, which underlines myy argument that shale oil has become the new “swing producer”. It is also all good see the constant […]
Your Seven-Point Guide To H2 2015 Oil Prices
By John Richardson BEFORE you get carried away with the wholly misguided notion that we have entered into a “new normal” of oil prices in the region of $60-80 a barrel for the rest of this year, see below for a further and updated guide to why this kind of thinking is very, very dangerous. […]
US Fed Reinvents 19th Century Boom And Boost Oil Markets
By John Richardson ONE way of looking at the world is that central bankers know exactly what they are doing as they are Masters of the Universe. These bankers have excellent degrees and doctorates from top universities bursting out their CVs, along with fantastic track records of rescuing the global economy, I have often been […]
China To Stop Importing Chemicals As It Exports New Technologies
By John Richardson LAST Friday I discussed how, even without the impact of demographics on demand, it is mathematically impossible to fit one two billion into two billion. Now bear with me for a few minutes. The themes I discussed on Friday are so critically important to how the global chemicals industry measures growth that […]
Oil Price Rally Built On Very Fragile Ground
By John Richardson OIL prices rallied yesterday on an unexpected fall in inventories at Cushing in the US to 61.7 million barrels for the week ending 24 April (see the above chart). This was a decline of 514,000 barrels over the previous week, which compared with forecasts of an increase of 400,000 barrels. So does […]
European Petchems: Necessity is Again The Mother Of Invention
By John Richardson WHEN has a European cracker gone beyond its useful life? Forty or 50 years? Or maybe if you spend the right amount of money, it can last for a great deal longer. Devoting enough ingenuity and capital on boosting your cracker’s energy efficiency and feedstock flexibility can also secure the future of […]
Oil Price Chaos: What It Means For The Planning Process
By John Richardson FIRST of all, we were told that $100 a barrel, or thereabouts, was the natural price for oil. And then we were told this after the price collapse: “Not to worry, this is just a temporary supply glut. Output cuts will soon be sufficient to restore the price back to the region […]
China Would Be The Only Winner From A Price War
By John Richardson IT IS dangerously wrong to still think of China as just a cheap, copycat low-value manufacturing nation. Yes, cheap, agreed, and to begin with, as was the case with the US, it has copied other countries’ technologies. But forget low value, as China’s extraordinary growth in the smartphones business indicates. Eventually in […]
Oil Markets In One Word: China
By John Richardson A COMMENT I have heard so many times over the last two months is that once oil prices settle down, China’s petrochemicals buyers will have to come back in large numbers in order to replenish what must be, by now, very low inventory levels. For example, last month I was told: “If […]
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