As always, this blog post expresses my own personal views and these are not the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson TEN HOURS before I wrote this blog post, the South China Morning Post published an article headlined, “Dim prospects for a deal as China and US resume trade war talks”. The newspaper said […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
Multiple trade disputes and the risks for the US PE industry
By John Richardson FALLING out with a trading partner as big as China is problematic enough. But the US is also out of sorts with the EU, India and Turkey and is at risk of ending up in a dispute with Vietnam. The row with China is far from being resolved despite the G20 truce. […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]
Trade War: 88m tonnes of lost polymers demand despite the boom in Asia ex-China
By John Richardson SURE, there are tremendous opportunities for petrochemicals and polymers companies in booming Southeast (SEA) Asia and South Asia as manufacturing chains relocate from China. Demographics are economic destiny. This is a process that has been taking place for at least ten years as Chinese labour costs rise on an ageing population whereas […]
China holds all the petchems demand aces as it digs in for longer trade war
By John Richardson THE STRENGTH of China’s position in the intensifying trade war is further underlined by the above chart. In everything from oil and gas through to petrochemicals and finished goods, China is the world’s biggest market. Minus off China from consumption and many other developing countries, and even entire regions, can sometimes almost […]
Plastic waste crisis threatens 575m tonnes of global non-recycled PE demand
By John Richardson THE DEMAND growth for oil and other liquid fuels could be more than 50% lower up until 2040 under one scenario presented by BP in its latest Energy Review. This outcome would be the result of substantial growth in polymers recycling over the next 20 years. Oil majors are spending billions of […]
China full-year lending decline confirms that Fed pause is a sideshow
By John Richardson CHINA’S full-year 2018 lending figures are out and they underline what I’d be warning throughout last year – the withdrawal of stimulus back to the levels of the pre-2009 period. Shadow bank lending, which has led to extraordinary growth in demand for chemicals and polymers, and all the things made from chemicals […]
Turkey PE demand could be 8% lower as economic problems continue
By John Richardson TURKEY’S apparent demand for PE may have fallen by 8% in 2018 to around 2m tonnes from 2.2m tonnes of demand in 2017, I estimate. PP doesn’t look to have been as badly affected, as I think apparent demand will be approximately 2.2m tonnes in 2018, some 40,000 tonnes less than in […]
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