LOTS OF FOCUS has been on the Trump effect on the US trading relationship with China. But we need to think more broadly than this. I see a significant risk that next year we will see trade tensions increasing between other countries and China for the reasons described in today’s post
Asian Chemical Connections
The “sound and fury” of new China stimulus and PE and PP spreads
New China stimulus in 2025 seems unlikely to be able to fully address long-term economic challenges
Five personal predictions for chemicals markets in 2025
IT IS THAT time of the year again when analysts need to put their reputations on the line and make forecasts for the following year. So, see above the slide with my five forecasts for 2025 with detailed descriptions in the main text of the post.
China, global chemical trade flows and the need for better analysis
THERE is nothing new in this pattern in the case of some of these polymers. What’s new could be the willingness to absorb Chinese surpluses
As you plan for 2025, a reminder of the big shift in market fundamentals
IT IS the gap between earlier expectations of China’s chemicals demand growth and the new growth realities that largely explain record levels of global oversupply.
The developing world outside China to the rescue, but not for a long time
A full recovery next year? If you think this is likely, then think again
China’s recent economic stimulus barely registers on PE margins
CHINA’S RECENT economic stimulus has failed ot turn around record low PE margins
China PP sales turnover collapses by $4.6bn after the end of the Supercycle
LOSSES ACROSS China’s top ten trading partners in PP totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102m.
Your new China stimulus noise-cancelling headphones: PE spreads and margins
UNTIL or unless margins and spreads return to normal, there will have been no China recovery
Global ethylene 12 months later: Nothing seems to have changed
What would it take to return global operating rates to the very healthy 1992-2023 average of 88%? Global capacity would have to grow by an average of around 2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 6.2m tonnes a year.
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