THE US is winning in the key China market because of feedstock advantages in a lower-price environment. But future trade flows will likely be shaped by geopolitics, demographics, debts and sustainability
Asian Chemical Connections
Global HDPE, the value of facts over commentary and the importance of scenario planning
Global HDPE capacity would have to grow by just 173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year to achieve a 2024-2030 operating rate of 88%.
Don’t put sustainability in a broom cupboard in the basement
How the chemicals world could re-align as sustainability becomes a new route to competitive advantage
Petrochemicals three years from now: A shrinking global market?
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
China events suggest no global petchems recovery until 2026
Capacity growth of just 1.6m tonnes a year versus our base case of 5m tonnes a year would require substantial capacity closures in some regions. Closures are never easy and so take considerable time because of links with upstream refineries, environmental clean-up and redundancy costs – and the reluctance to be the “first plant out” in case markets suddenly recover.
Petrochemicals after the Supercycle: Revised scenarios
LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
China’s petrochemicals capacity growth: A new normal of much greater uncertainty
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
China’s ever-more sophisticated chemicals market could entirely serve itself
What’s your Plan B if China were to also become self-sufficient in specialities as well as commodities?
China could still become entirely petrochemicals self-sufficient despite the impact of EVs on its refineries
Petrochemical exporters to China need to ignore suggestions that lack of feedstocks will slow China’s push to complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Jump to page: