Yes, if it persists despite the best efforts of the government to cool down the economy. The point is that this is not just crude oil and food prices, but the pace of underlying inflation is picking. As the Financial Times reports, inflation is now at an 11-year-high
Asian Chemical Connections
More Indonesian consolidation on the way?
There are strong rumours circulating that the hopelessly fragmented Indonesian petrochemical industry might undergo some more restructuring. This would follow Titan Petrochemical’s purchase of troubled polyethylene producer PT Peni, now renamed PT Titan, for a bargain price. Common ownership between sole cracker operator Chandra Asri and its numerous downstream companies would go a long way […]
The Grim Reaper readies himself
See below for an extended analysis of why everything is about to go wrong. Looking forward to picking up some bargain chemical shares over the next two years and some cheap US and UK property! As the Asian head of M&A and acqusitions for a major bank told me this morning: “Wnen everyone tells me […]
China lending restrictions to hit petchems?
China annnounced on Wednesday that it had shifted its monetary policy stance to “tight” from “prudent” in response to food-price driven inflation, soaring real-estate prices, the surge in local stock markets and continued strong growth in industrial investment. How this policy shift will be implemented remains unclear, but media reports suggest that total bank-lending growth […]
Could China be the new Japan?
Quite possibly not, according to a Deutsche Bank report. However, as the report makes the clear, the same types of imbalances are building in the Chinese economy which led to Japan’s “Lost Decade” of the 1990s. Time to take stock and have a contingency plan?
The beginning of the end?
For three wonderful years, petrochemical producers have had the pricing power thanks to tight supply and demand balances and very strong growth economic growth. Now with crude close to pushing past the pyschologically important $100 a barrel barrier and construction sectors in the West slowing down on the sub-prime crisis, the polyvinyl chloride industry in […]
Will free forecasting have its Wiki way?
Now, please be patient – the sting is in the tail. This could have great relevance to your business….. The industry in which I work – the media – has been decimated by the Internet with billions of dollars of earnings and hundreds of thousands of livelihoods sucked out of traditional publishing by online advertising. […]
Asia needs a recesssion
Asian industry leaders are playing lip service to the environmental crisis the world confronts . George Monbiot, the excellent author and journalist, argues that what the West needs is a recession to give the planet a breather.Asia also needs a substantial economic slowdown to give policymakers and technology developers more time.
Asian biofuels face a big crisis
After all the optimism, all the hype and a lot of investors’ money, the industry has shot itself in the foot by failing to build demand ahead of supply. Plus the negativity caused by food versus fuel and environmental counter-arguments to supporting this current generation of technologies is making some Asian governments hesitate on providing […]
The flawed “science” of forecasting
Maybe I’ve been to too many conferences this year, and indeed over the last decade, and have seen too many forecasts go wrong. Call me cynical, or plain wrong, but………..
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