THE STORY IS very similar across many of the petrochemicals, including PVC.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s 96% Q1 surge in PP exports mirrors wider export push as trade tensions build
China’s Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.
As China volume growth is no longer guaranteed, focus on growing value
THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value
China may see either annual average PP net imports of 4.9m tonnes or net exports of 7.2m tonnes in 2024-2030
Relatively minor changes in PP demand growth and operating rate assumptions have big effects on forecasts for China’s trade flows.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
China’s average annual LLDPE net imports could be just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030
CHINA’S net LLDPE imports could average 6.5m tonnes a year of just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030
Why China’s HDPE net imports could average just 700,000 tonnes per year in 2024-2030
RIGOROUS scenario planning is essential for China’s net import flows in 2024-2030
Three scenarios for China’s PE demand in 2024-2030 and the effects on global operating rates
UNDER all the scenarios, growth set to decline to the low single digits from 10% in 1992-2023.
How Europe can avoid “sleepwalking” towards offshoring of petrochemicals
Neither Supermajors nor Deglobalisation are inevitable. Outcomes will instead be set by many individual choices that are coordinated in the rights ways. In other words, it is within the gift of Europe to wake up from Jim Ratcliffe’s “sleepwalk”.
Record levels of oversupply and the “Doublespeak” of the old market language
China CFR PE price spreads hit new record low in 2024
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