By John Richardson THE above map global shows our base-case forecasts for global trade flows of HDPE, LLDPE and PP in 2025. It is the result of lots of hard work and smart thinking around feedstock costs, logistics costs and demand growth etc. and is a good start to your scenario planning process. The map […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Holds Most Of The Good Cards In Trade War With US
By John Richardson THE BREAKOUT of formal trade hostilities between China and the US, after more than a year of a “war of words” between the two countries, has occurred shortly after the EU responded to the US aluminium and steel tariffs with tariffs of its own against US goods. The much-feared tit-for-tat exchange of […]
Petchems Markets To Become Entirely Regional As Trade Barriers Increase
By John Richardson WHEN Donald Trump held election rallies during 2016, the amount of anger directed at mainstream Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton was, as everyone knows, intense. She represented the kind of mainstream politician that many of those who voted for President Trump blamed for stagnating middle class income levels and the loss of […]
As Global Trade War Moves Closer, Impact On Petchems In 2018-2019
By John Richardson IT USED to be the case that one week was a long time in politics, but now, because of policy conducted via Twitter and other forms of social media, five minutes seems to be a long time in politics. The state of events can change by the time you’ve left your screen […]
Polyethylene Margins Face Collapse On Overcapacity
By John Richardson THE consensus view is that whilst global polyethylene (PE) margins have further to fall from their levels so far in 2018 (see the above chart), they will not get that much worse. It is thought that the PE downcycle will be brief and very shallow because of booming global demand for PE […]
US-China Trade War Draws Closer: Impact On Petrochemicals
By John Richardson NOTHING that has happened over the last 24 hours should take you by surprise. Your petrochemicals company has had ample time to prepare for the US-China trade war that has now become a much stronger possibility following the US decision to impose $60bn of new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shortly after President […]
China And US On Collision Course As Trade Tensions Build
By John Richardson Yesterday, President Trump threatened to impose penalties on China for alleged abuse of intellectual property right rules. Below is the context behind way claims of abuses are likely to increase in the future. This suggests that China and the US are on a collision course over trade, with major negative implications for […]
Stock Markets: Real Implications For Petchems and Risks Of A “Cynical Bubble”
By John Richardson WHEN stock markets are rising, the proverbial garden can look as if it is blooming with summer flowers without a weed in sight. But the underlying data suggest wealth inequality is still a major issue in the US, with the inequality creating iconoclastic politics in the US that continue to threaten a […]
House Of Cards Waiting To Fall: Oil, Equities And The Economy
By John Richardson HOW much of the rise in oil prices since June of last year has been down to the fundamentals of supply and demand versus the hedge funds taking out a record number of short positions? We are about to find out, I feel. There are early signs that the hedgies have started […]
US Stock Market Decline Highlights Consumer Spending, Income And Debt Risks
By John Richardson THE SUSTAINABILITY of the US economic recovery rests on the willingness of people who cannot afford to spend money to continue to spend money. In order to explain what I mean, let’s start with income and wealth distribution in the US. A US Federal Reserve study showed that the 90% of US […]
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