By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian polypropylene market heads for major 2020 downturn
By John Richardson THE ASIAN polypropylene (PP) market hasn’t been as bad as the region’s polyethylene (PE) market in 2019 because of much more limited increases in supply. Whereas the PE market has been flooded with new US production, especially in linear-low density PE (LLDPE), increases in PP output have been much lower. Not for […]
China new vehicle sales: A long term decline and what this means for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE MAINSTREAM view is that there is nothing fundamental about the decline in new vehicle sales in China. Conventional analysis blames the 2018-2019 slump on the 50% cut in value-added taxes on new autos that came to end in December 2017. This brought forward demand as buyers scrambled to beat the end […]
China’s real GDP growth below 6% as mono-ethylene glycols margins provide early indicator of depth of downturn
By John Richardson GLOBAL stock markets will now doubt respond negatively to the news that China’s official GDP growth in Q3 fell to a 30-year low of 6%. But it important to put this event into the proper context. First of all, nobody has ever been able to trust of the official GDP growth numbers. […]
The new China and the rise of the Millennials transform the petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson ANYONE who has anything to do with the petrochemicals industry or anything to do with the global economy, in other words all of us, needs to pay close attention to the above chart and what it is telling us. This once again demonstrates the enormous value of the ICIS Supply & Demand […]
Global manufacturing slowdown: Turn to China’s polypropylene market for your explanation
By John Richardson THEY SADLY still don’t get it. All the clamour yesterday was about declining services and manufacturing growth in the West, with stock markets down until late-in-the-day rallies, probably because investors figured that the Fed will cut interest rates for a third time since the financial crisis later this month. But for the […]
Global PE market to remain long despite Saudi cutbacks caused by drone attack
By John Richardson TRADERS lucky enough to be holding long positions in PE ahead of the 14 September drone attack on Saudi oil and gas facilities want everyone to believe that this has changed everything. They will tell you over and over again, if you’re prepared to listen, that the resulting reduction in ethane supply […]
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
President Trump’s tariff concession adds to uncertainties as we drift towards a bipolar world
The following opinions are my personal views, and, as always, do not express the views of ICIS By John Richardson PRESIDENT TRUMP could have blinked at the prospect of Christmas shoppers punishing him at the ballot box for the increased cost of gifts beneath their trees. This is what I think is behind his decision […]
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