By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump is playing with fire as a result of his plan to impose 10% import tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports. This threatens to push the world into a global recession. (I hope you took notice when I warned you to expect very little from last week’s trade talks). […]
Asian Chemical Connections
BASF’s shocking Q2 results should have been no shock at all
y John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised by the BASF results for Q1 2019 where, on a year-on-year basis, EBIT was down by 71%. This was largely because of events in China. The roots of these very poor results, with many more likely to follow from other chemicals companies, can be traced back to H1 […]
China PE overstocking at nearly a million tonnes as demand weakens, competition intensifies
By John Richardson MEASURING petrochemicals and polymer inventory levels in China with any reasonable degree of accuracy is an impossible task. Nobody can quite obviously count every single plastic pallet in every warehouse up and down China’s vast distribution chains. Sinopec and PetroChina do, however, report their inventory levels. This is at least something and […]
China petrochemicals recovery on G20 trade war progress will be shortlived
By John Richardson China petrochemical and polymer price spreads over naphtha feedstock costs will rebound over the next few weeks as a result of events at the G2o meeting in Japan. The US has agreed to resume trade talks with China and pause on imposing any more tariffs on Chinese goods. Buyers of petrochemicals and […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]
China’s polyethylene demand in 2019 now at risk as slowdown gathers momentum
By John Richardson JUST when most of us thought we had figured out China’s polyethylene (PE) market, its ambiguities and complexities could again be about to come back and bite us. I am beginning to think that 2019 demand growth may not be as robust as I had thought would be the case only two weeks […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]
China real estate a growing stress point for global chemicals demand
By John Richardson WE ALL know, or at least we all should know, just how important is the Chinese economy to the global economy. Assume significantly weaker-than-consensus Chinese demand growth in everything from base chemicals to autos, smartphones and TVs, and there is no statistical basis for believing that strong growth in other regions can […]
China PP demand growth still heading for seven-year low despite surge in imports
By John Richardson ALL is not suddenly right with China’s polypropylene (PP) demand despite our revised data for January-April 2019 indicating growth is back on target to hit our forecast for the full year 2019 of around 6%. We had earlier placed January-April 2019 demand growth at just 2% compared with the same months last […]
Symptoms worsen for Dr Benzene and China economy as trade war accelerates
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart is again telling us something very important about the real state of the Chinese economy. It shows Northeast Asian (NEA) benzene pricing spreads over naphtha feedstock costs, (NEA pricing is in effect a China price as of course China dominates the NEA region). Dr Benzene, as with Dr Copper, […]
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