THE TEN REASONS why this isn’t a standard chemical industry downcycle
Asian Chemical Connections
The US is winning in China in today’s HDPE world but what about tomorrow?
THE US is winning in the key China market because of feedstock advantages in a lower-price environment. But future trade flows will likely be shaped by geopolitics, demographics, debts and sustainability
Global HDPE, the value of facts over commentary and the importance of scenario planning
Global HDPE capacity would have to grow by just 173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year to achieve a 2024-2030 operating rate of 88%.
Latest China PP data: The old Supercycle world retreats further into the past
The major PP exporters to China continue their sales turnover shrink on rising self-sufficiency weak pricing and poor demand growth
Petrochemicals three years from now: A shrinking global market?
MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
China events suggest no global petchems recovery until 2026
Capacity growth of just 1.6m tonnes a year versus our base case of 5m tonnes a year would require substantial capacity closures in some regions. Closures are never easy and so take considerable time because of links with upstream refineries, environmental clean-up and redundancy costs – and the reluctance to be the “first plant out” in case markets suddenly recover.
Petrochemicals after the Supercycle: Revised scenarios
LET ME AGAIN bang away on the same old drum which I’ve covered with a new skin: The above slide is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. Also note that I have this time included percentage weightings of my views on the likelihoods of the scenarios.
China’s petrochemicals capacity growth: A new normal of much greater uncertainty
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
China’s Third Plenum later this month: Implications for petchem markets
How will we know if the Third Plenum has returned China to its old growth trajectory? If China CFR HDPE price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs rebound by 164%, LDPE spreads increase by 62% and LLDPE spreads rise by 100%.
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