By John Richardson ALL is not suddenly right with China’s polypropylene (PP) demand despite our revised data for January-April 2019 indicating growth is back on target to hit our forecast for the full year 2019 of around 6%. We had earlier placed January-April 2019 demand growth at just 2% compared with the same months last […]
Asian Chemical Connections
No room for cynicism as China targets major plastic clean-up
By John Richardson THE CYNICS out there would have you believe that the global plastics rubbish crisis is a passing fad, something that will fade from public consciousness as another “trendy cause” captures the popular imagination. They also want you think that the concern over plastic rubbish is almost entirely a rich world luxury. When […]
China inland polyethylene growth: The big unanswered question
By John Richardson IF China played an insignificant role in global polyethylene (PE) demand the above chart would not matter. Few people would care about the latent potential of China’s 21 relatively poor mainland provinces if China were as unimportant as India and the Asia & Pacific region. “Surely not? India and Asia & Pacific […]
A tale of two polymers in China: ICIS 8th World Polyolefins Conference presentation
WE HELD our 8th World Polyolefins Conference in Vienna last week where I presented this paper on the China market. Polymers that go into durable end-use applications in China, such as PP, are more vulnerable to credit cycles and the decline in GDP growth than is the case with polymers such as PE. PE is […]
A brand new ‘how to” guide for forecasting Chinese polyethylene demand
By John Richardson TIME and again over the last ten years the strength or weakness of Chinese chemicals and polymers demand has taken everyone by surprise. One method of analysis that does hold considerable value as a methodology for forecasting growth might be predictions of future credit flows for some chemicals. The big uptick in […]
China polyethylene demand forecasting: Forget GDP, look downstream and focus on regions
By John Richardson THE TOP DOWN method of estimating polyethylene (PE) demand growth in China that uses multiples over GDP seems to have major weaknesses (and some of what follows may apply to other chemicals and polymers). The problem is with GDP itself. China’s actual and forecast official GDP growth numbers have long been understood […]
China’s January credit surge: Case for one-off panic, no new global economic boom
By John Richardson CHINA’S HUGE January credit increase might be the start of a new round of major credit-fuelled economic stimulus, was the theory I put forward last week. This would lead to a rebound in global growth and a surge in worldwide chemicals demand as global growth is about these three things: China, China […]
China autos and polypropylene: Growth has peaked and will decline
By John Richardson WHAT if the number of new vehicle sales in China reached a long term peak of 28.9m in 2017? What if the declines in sales that we saw in 2018 continue or that at the very best sales remain flat? “Let’s put this in perspective, though. Just look at how the market […]
Asian PE margins to test 2012 lows as consensus catches up with economic realities
By John Richardson IT HAS been evident since as early as February this year that China’s economy is slowing down. But once again, as in 2014, companies and investors have overlooked the key indicator of a slowdown: The sharp decline in credit availability, particularly via China’s shadow banking system. “Not to worry,” I can hear […]
Scenario 1 inevitable? Are you really, really, hand on heart, that sure?
ICIS and the UK–based chemicals company International eChem had the privilege of making a presentation during the Knowledge Sharing Partners event at last month’s GPCA Forum in Dubai. The conference was organised by our excellent ICIS Conferences team. Please click this link for a copy of our slides: ICISConsultingPresentationGPCA2018 If you would like to further discuss […]
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