By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) imports in 2021 look as if they might collapse versus last year, according to the early data for this year (see the above chart). The same could apply to polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports, as I discussed earlier this week. The potential 40% decline in HDPE […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China early data point to PP imports collapsing by 78% this year with SM 67% lower
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene, polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene fell during the first two months of this year versus November-December 2020. I have yet to crunch the data on the rest of the major products, but I suspect the trend will be the same. (This comparison is the only […]
Worsening semiconductor shortages highlight need for new approach to demand
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICAL companies need to set up demand teams that focus on all the new short and long-term variables that have left us completely at sea on how to assess consumption. We need to almost start from scratch as regards demand management. Everything needs to be on the table for confidential and completely […]
China petrochemicals and the lack of logical basis for the 2021 boom theory
By John Richardson IF YOU DO a Google search, you will find a lot of articles on China’s economic recovery. Click on the links, spend some time reading them in detail, and you will discover a common narrative: China’s recovery remains on track this year. But you will not find the data that […]
China’s missing data still point to unclear direction for exports, petchems demand
By John Richardson THE GOOD NEWS is that the total US dollar value of China’s total exports increased by 33% in January-February 2020 to $483bn over the same first two months in 2019, according to a few further morsels of trade data that emerged yesterday. A comparison with 2019 is much more relevant than drawing […]
Complexity of global PP demand post-pandemic: Three new scenarios for 2021-2025
By John Richardson THE COMPLEXITY of the economic outlook is such that nobody can say with even the smallest degree of genuine confidence what will happen to global petrochemicals and polymers demand over the next five years. It is hard to know where to start in suggesting scenarios of how the interconnections between today’s four […]
China PMIs point to export slowdown and risk to petchems market rally
By John Richardson WE STILL DON’T have all the data we need to reach a firm conclusion about whether the recent surge in China’s petrochemical prices (see a few examples above) is founded on genuinely strong demand or just stocking-up by buyers in anticipation of further supply-driven price increases. And even where we do have […]
China’s petchems market rally: we don’t have enough data to decide whether it is sustainable
By John Richardson CHINA’S PETROCHEMICAL prices typically increase when the Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays come to an end. But because some of China’s factories either did not shut down at all this year or staggered their closures to control the country’s limited second wave of the pandemic, this week’s price rally might have not […]
China PX imports could fall by 64% in 2021 with styrene imports 59% lower
By John Richardson AS OF yesterday, around 70% of US paraxylene capacity was offline. No less than 67% of US ethylene capacity and 14% of benzene capacity had been impacted by the severe winter weather, meaning of course that US styrene monomer (SM) output will have also been severely curtailed. I could go on, covering […]
China’s PP imports in 2021 could fall by as much as 53% over last year
By John Richardson TODAY I get closer to completing my outlooks for China’s petrochemical and polymer imports in 2021 by analysing what might happen in polypropylene (PP). Later this week or next week I will complete the picture by looking at styrene monomer. Previously, I examined polyethylene (PE), where this year there is very little […]
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