By John Richardson Everything is still going to plan. As the chart above shows, China’s official bank lending is down by 16% in the year to date as the government rations credit to the big state-owned enterprises. The last thing that China needs right now is even more unneeded industrial capacity and infrastructure. But, of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China PE Recovery Lacks Firm Foundation
By John Richardson DESPITE a slight pick-up in China’s polyethylene (PE) prices over the last two weeks (see above chart), producers and traders remain gloomy about the immediate outlook. “What has driven prices up is that new supply hasn’t hit the June market in volumes that people expected,” said a source with a global producer. […]
China’s PE Cycle Repeats Itself
By John Richardson THE above chart shows that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand growth has been well below that of overall GDP for most of the years between 2006 and 2012. This supports the argument that economic growth has been too heavily focused on investment rather than consumption, given that the majority of PE goes into […]
China Jan PMIs Tell Different Stories
Source of picture: Imaginechina/Rex Feature By John Richardson ONE can interpret last week’s release of January purchasing manager’s indices for January just about any way you like. Thus, Reuters wrote on 2 February: “China’s official PMI released by the government’s statistics bureau showed factories grew slower-than-expected in January, with a reading of 50.4, easing […]
China’s Two-Speed Recovery
By John Richardson CHINA appears to be in the midst of a two-speed recovery as a result of stronger domestic growth, while the export environment remains very bleak. “Our polyethylene (PE) sales to converters who sell into the domestic market have picked up very well in Q4,” said a source with a global polyolefins producer. […]
China PE Growth At Only 4%
By John Richardson CHINA’s polyethylene (PE) demand growth was up just 4% in January-October of this year compared with the same period in 2010, as the chart above from Global Trade Information Services (GTIS) indicates. And yet in January, many of the people the blog spoke to were confidently predicting double-digit demand growth for 2012. […]
China Lending Declines In October
By John Richardson POLITICS, politics and politics are three most important factors that need to be evaluated when assessing the direction of China’s economy. Thus, in the short term it appears that the surge in bank lending from May to September might well have been to create the illusion of a robust economy ahead of the […]
China GDP Growth 4-5% in 2013-2020
Canton Trade Fair. Source of picture: http://www.vatti-china.com/News/83.htm By John Richardson IT would be nice to believe that the improved mood at this week’s Canton Trade Fair represents a long-term turnaround in China’s economic direction. This reflects a 9.9% increase in overall exports in September, much higher than the 5.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg […]
A Game Of Two Halves
Source: ICIS By John Richardson CHINA’S fibre intermediates industry could end of being a game of two halves in 2012, to use an old football (or soccer for the benefit of our America readers) cliché. The reason is that the first half of the year was characterised by very weak demand as the overall […]
APIC: A Sense Of Shock
By John Richardson ANOTHER theme that emerged from last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, was the shock at the extent of the price declines in the key China market. In polyolefins, the slump in pricing has been the most pronounced during a period when the consensus opinion was that […]
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