These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why President Trump, unlike with Iran, will find it harder to shift course on China
As always, these are my personal views only and do not represent the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A WILLINGNESS to change policy direction in almost the blink of an eye is one of the messages from this week’s geopolitical chaos. When many of us thought the US was about to […]
US and Iran conflict in a world of declining growth and fragile supply chains
By John Richardson THINK of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and multiply its impact on global supply chains by at least a factor of ten. Then place the supply disruptions from the US and Iran conflict into the context of an already weakening global economy and you can begin to grasp the risks ahead. The […]
US/China trade deal achieves little as China pushes hard towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump has promised a “tremendous amount of business” for US farmers following the announcement of a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China. But US claims that China will eventually buy up to as much as $50bn of US agricultural products seem to defy economic logic given the price of soybeans, the […]
Global polyethylene in 2020: Margins will reach historic lows as new growth model emerges
Here is a first of a series of outlook articles for 2020 where I focus on the risks ahead for the global polyethylene business By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market will start 2020 with a whimper because of exceptionally high levels of overstocking, which is a reflection of growing global oversupply. In the […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Asian polypropylene market heads for major 2020 downturn
By John Richardson THE ASIAN polypropylene (PP) market hasn’t been as bad as the region’s polyethylene (PE) market in 2019 because of much more limited increases in supply. Whereas the PE market has been flooded with new US production, especially in linear-low density PE (LLDPE), increases in PP output have been much lower. Not for […]
Surge in US polyethylene exports occurs as China growth slows, Asian margins turn negative
By John Richardson PERHAPS ONE could argue, but I certainly wouldn’t, that in a perfect world the extraordinary rise in US polyethylene (PE) exports, which are detailed in the chart on the left, would have just about found a comfortable home. But when has the world ever been perfect? It certainly isn’t today: The IMF […]
President Trump can only cause major economic damage by beating China, unless he has a time machine
The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson LORD SALISBURY, who served as British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, understood it was impossible to turn back time to the American Civil of […]
Hong Kong an example of rising political risk and the end of easy growth
This blog expresses my opinions and not those of ICIS By John Ricuardson THE UNREST in Hong Kong worsened over the weekend. Protestors were pepper-sprayed, rubber bullets were used and travellers on the Hong Kong underground were filmed being beaten by the police. Petrol bombs were thrown by demonstrators. This morning Hong Kong’s airport was […]
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