By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market is being temporarily weighed down by overstocking which is the result of the big surge in March imports. Many of the arrivals in March were of material booked late last year when oil and so PE prices were falling, drawing traders and Chinese buyers into major commitments. This […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China holds all the petchems demand aces as it digs in for longer trade war
By John Richardson THE STRENGTH of China’s position in the intensifying trade war is further underlined by the above chart. In everything from oil and gas through to petrochemicals and finished goods, China is the world’s biggest market. Minus off China from consumption and many other developing countries, and even entire regions, can sometimes almost […]
President Trump’s Tweets increase risk of no trade deal until 2021
By John Richardson THE PROSPECTS of a trade deal seem to have have faded into the distance as a result of Tweeted threats from President Trump that the US will raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, including several chemicals and plastics. The increase would happen on Friday, he said. […]
China chemicals storage at bursting point indicates no big new economic stimulus
By John Richardson CHEMICALS markets are a great barometer for weather conditions in the wider economy because they are upstream of so many manufacturing industries. We should therefore take close notice of the above chart, from this excellent article by my ICIS colleague, Yvonne Shi. What the chart shows is that by mid-March, weekly inventory […]
US foreign policy reshaping global oil markets at major cost to the US
Guest blogger today is again Ajay Parmar in the third of his posts. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity. He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and […]
Surge in China lending could lead to global economic rebound, stronger chemicals demand
By John Richardson CHINA may have pressed the panic button again. If the extraordinary rise in January lending is sustained, this would represent the third time in recent history that China has opened the floodgates on new credit. A sustained upswing in lending would obviously result in stronger chemicals pricing, margins and demand. Further upward […]
Search for votes in 2020 US presidential battleground states may wreck trade deal
By John Richardson A GOOD WAY of deciding whether or not the likely US/China trade deal will hold is to take a close look at the demographics in 15 potential battleground states in the 2020 presidential election. As of 2016, just ahead of the last presidential poll, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report estimated […]
China’s dominant role in global PE demand just got even bigger
By John Richardson WE WERE already living in an incredibly lopsided PE world even before last year’s extraordinary rise in Chinese demand. Between 2009 and 2020 we had forecast that China would account for 25% of global PE consumption and 42% of global growth in demand. These percentages compared with just 16% of consumption and […]
China 2018 polypropylene demand growth lowest in six years
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polypropylene (PP) grew by 4.7% in 2018 over the previous year as the impact of the fall in auto and other durable goods sales hit the market hard, is my preliminary estimate. This would represent the lowest annual growth since 2012. Apparent demand, which is net imports plus […]
The polyethylene world is now even more hooked on China
By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]
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