The light blue bars show the impact of a Dire Demographics scenario on China’s polymers demand
Asian Chemical Connections
A murky future for China’s exports: Implications for chemicals
GEOPOLITICS, reshoring and sustainability combine to make the outlook for Chinese exports very cloudy
The US is winning in China in today’s HDPE world but what about tomorrow?
THE US is winning in the key China market because of feedstock advantages in a lower-price environment. But future trade flows will likely be shaped by geopolitics, demographics, debts and sustainability
Global HDPE, the value of facts over commentary and the importance of scenario planning
Global HDPE capacity would have to grow by just 173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year to achieve a 2024-2030 operating rate of 88%.
Latest China PP data: The old Supercycle world retreats further into the past
The major PP exporters to China continue their sales turnover shrink on rising self-sufficiency weak pricing and poor demand growth
China events suggest no global petchems recovery until 2026
Capacity growth of just 1.6m tonnes a year versus our base case of 5m tonnes a year would require substantial capacity closures in some regions. Closures are never easy and so take considerable time because of links with upstream refineries, environmental clean-up and redundancy costs – and the reluctance to be the “first plant out” in case markets suddenly recover.
China’s petrochemicals capacity growth: A new normal of much greater uncertainty
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
China could still become entirely petrochemicals self-sufficient despite the impact of EVs on its refineries
Petrochemical exporters to China need to ignore suggestions that lack of feedstocks will slow China’s push to complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency
China’s economic challenges continue to be made clear by PP spreads
Until average PP spreads recover by 149% from where they were up until 9 June, there will have been no return to the great markets we saw during the Supercycle. Meanwhile, too capacity will be chasing too little demand.
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