In the first part of a two-part series on how chemicals companies need to respond to China’s economic reforms, we look at the “account receivables” challenge. Tomorrow we will look at new growth opportunities. By John Richardson AS China’s credit wind down continues, and its overall economic reforms accelerate, chemicals companies need to look […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Take Away The China “Froth” And What’s Left?
By John Richardson THE denial that we discussed last week is still very much in evidence. For example, we heard the argument over the last few days that China’s economic slowdown would involve only “a couple of bad quarters” and then China, and Asia-Pacific markets in general, would be back to normal. The following two […]
Nothing “Disappointing” About China Data
By John Richardson CHINA’S credit growth in 2014 would have to be higher than that of last year if GDP growth is going to hit 7.5%. But in February, as Reuters wrote in this article: “China’s total social financing, a broad measure of credit in the economy, increased by 938.7 billion Yuan ($US152.9bn) in February, […]
ICIS Launches Asia PP Price Forecasting
By John Richardson PERHAPS nobody should have been that surprised that China’s polypropylene (PP) market was weak in February and the first half of March. Here is why: · China saw its highest-ever monthly level of PP homo-polymer imports in January 2014 – 448, 000 tonnes, according to the New York-based trade data service, International […]
China’s Changing Polyethylene Demand
By John Richardson ONCE people in the developing world start buying food wrapped in plastic packaging, they rarely switch back to food wrapped in paper, executives in the polyolefins industry keep telling us. They thus talk about a “base load” of permanent new demand as urbanisation increases across Asia, which is often accompanied by higher […]
China: One “Blink” And We Are Back To Normal
By John Richardson Temporary factors might be behind the weakness in China’s polyethylene (PE) market that has been highlighted by our colleagues at ICIS pricing. Last week, pricing in China was either flat or declined on bearish sentiment (see the above chart). One temporary factor could be the traditional post-Lunar New Years shortage of workers […]
China “Base Case” Indicates Another Good Year
By John Richardson LAST year was a tremendous year for polyethylene (PE) exporters to China, according to data provided by US-based International Trader Publications, the US-based trade data and analytics service. They conclude that China’s imports of high-density polyethylene (HPDE) and low-density PE (LDPE) posted strong gains. Volumes for 2013 were up 18% and 10%, respectively, versus […]
China In 2014: Some Predictions
By John Richardson IT was a year to remember, for the right reasons, for anybody who bet on a recovery in Chinese polyethylene (PE) demand. Back in May, it was all doom and gloom. But since May, thanks to a surge in the availability of credit, apparent demand (local production plus imports) has bounced […]
Credit Tightening The Key For China In 2014
By John Richardson WE have been on a magical mystery tour during the second of half 2013 in an effort to discover what has really driven the 14% year-on-year increase in polyethylene (PE) apparent demand in China in January-August – the latest data that is available to us. Apparent demand is imports plus domestic production. […]
China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]
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