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Asian Chemical Connections

China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction

By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]

China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking

By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]

Construction Drives China 2013 PE Growth

By John Richardson THE blog has been banging its head against a brick wall for several months now in an an effort to fully explain why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand growth has been so strong during most of 2013. Interviews with well over 20 producers, traders, end-users and market analysts (to be honest, we have […]

Running Away From Complexity

  By John Richardson TWO-and-half years ago, the blog was told of a struggling Shanghai shoe-repair shop owner who had mortgaged himself up to the hilt in order to buy three apartments. “He has taken the risk because he assumes that the government will never let property prices fall,” a sales and marketing manager from […]

Zero And Declining Growth For China Imports

By John Richardson CHIINA’S ethylene equivalent imports will see zero growth over the next 5-7 years and the country’s propylene equivalent import requirement will decline over the same period, says a source with a major oil, gas and petrochemicals producer. This exceptionally bearish forecast is based on lower demand growth as China undergoes major economic […]

Strong June, But Shaky Q3

By John Richardson JUNE was a good month for Asia’s polyethylene (PE) industry. Both prices and margins (see the above charts) improved as a result of a reported delay to the start-up of a new big new complex that left end-users short of inventory. “China’s converters had held back for such a long time from […]

China Credit Crunch: Petchem Impact

  By John Richardson CHINA’S decision to make more funds available to lenders in order to ease the credit crunch does not represent a long-term change in policy direction, we think. “The worst is over. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to serve as a [lender of] last resort and intervene to calm […]

It Is Just Too Difficult

Smart bottles   By John Richardson THERE is a growing concern amongst some polyolefin industry executives that, despite the economic problems first in China and now India, there is still a great deal of enthusiasm for adding new capacity, as we discuss in this ICIS Insight article. “Now that China has weakened, everybody has switched […]

Indonesia’s Challenges

By John Richardson INDONESIA was the subject of much enthusiasm when the blog hosted a webinar  on Monday on China Polyolefins Markets. We will provide a link to a recorded version of the event shortly. The reason for the enthusiasm over Indonesia is perhaps because China, and now quite likely India, no longer guarantee strong growth. […]

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