By John Richardson THIS IS a tragedy in the genuine sense of the word, not just in the so-often misused sense of the word : a study earlier this year by the United Nations University said that as many as 580m additional people could be pushed into extreme poverty by the pandemic, or about 8% […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the consequences of US presidential elections and this year’s the poll, which as always takes place in November, is no exception. The result will of course have huge global economic and geopolitical consequences. But I believe that the outcomes […]
China’s polyethylene demand good so far in 2020 but beware of risks ahead
Note that all the comparisons in this post are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart, completing my analysis of supply and demand for China’s major petrochemicals and polymers in January-July, seems to indicate nothing much to be concerned about. If only the future were the same. What you […]
Ah, I see: China’s booming demand mystery a little closer to being solved
Note that all the data comparisons below are on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson THE PROVERBIAL light bulb came on early last month, thanks to this article from Trade Data Monitor (TDM) which analysed China’s strong July exports and made the point that they were driven by a big change in lifestyles. Many […]
The China polyester mystery continues in a world turned upside down
By John Richardson SOMETHING very strange is happening in China’s polyester industry which has enormous implications for the global industry, as ICIS data continue to point towards strong local apparent demand growth for paraxylene (PX) and monoethylene glycols (MEG) despite seemingly weak downstream fundamentals. The world “enormous” is no hyperbole because China completely dominates exports […]
China will struggle to boost local retail sales during rest of 2020 with export outlook uncertain
By John Richardson IF IT were easy, then there would be an oversupply of owners of large yachts in Monte Carlo. But understanding China has never been easy and has become a great deal harder because of the pandemic. This makes “I really don’t know” the only honest answer to the question of what is […]
Pandemic and the developing world: No quick and easy solutions
By John Richardson POVERTY alleviation in low-income developing countries could be set back a decade by the pandemic, warns the IMF in a new study. Problems it highlights include the collapse of remittance payments from overseas, down by 18% year-on-year in Bangladesh in January-May, lockdowns that have left workers living on the margin unable to […]
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
China’s limited policy options to help lower-paid workers make 2020 retail sales recovery unlikely
All the data comparisons below are on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson AS I’VE been flagging up for the last six weeks, China’s economic recovery has been driven by higher petrochemicals production and imports, along with an overall pick-up in manufacturing, rather than a big improvement in end-use demand. This was further underlined last […]
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
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