By John Richardson ONE of the enduring false views out there is that China’s economy will entirely recover later this year once the coronavirus crisis has been brought under control. Support for this misguided picture of events has built over the last couple of weeks as the number of new infections in China has declined. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Coronavirus: No recovery in petrochemicals likely until end-2020 and here are ten reasons why
By John Richardson HERE IS your print-out-and-keep 10-point guide, summarising the key themes I’ve covered over the last two weeks with important updates. I hope this helps your petrochemicals business in its planning process. Before we begin, I am afraid to say that we have probably lost a year’s worth of demand growth.Growth likely to […]
Coronavirus: China ethylene glycols demand could fall by 1.2m tonnes as imports also diminish
By John Richardson IN GEORGE ORWELL’S magnificent parody of communism, Animal Farm, he writes; “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’”. So it goes in petrochemicals value chains. All the chains have been affected by the coronavirus outbreak. They all share the commonality of a big loss over at least […]
Decline of 2.1m tonnes in 2020 global polypropylene demand now seems best possible outcome
By John Richardson EVERY DAY that goes by when China is not entirely back at work the economic damage is multiplying. It already looks as if the best China can hope for is real as opposed to politically manufactured 2020 GDP growth of around 2.25%. And that assumes a rapid economic rebound from Q2, which […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 could fall by 3.3m tonnes, cost curve analysis turned on its head
By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
Global PVC demand could fall by 1.1m tonnes as coronavirus crisis becomes global
By John Richardson YOU CANNOT stimulate economic activity when factories and offices need to be shut down, airlines are forced to cancel thousands of flights and conference organisers are compelled to cancel events. This is the dilemma that central bankers face, raising major doubts over whether “buy on the dip” will continue to work in […]
China polyethylene imports could be 3m tonnes lower as economy seizes up
By John Richardson IT IS TIME for crisis planning, I am afraid, as a result of the World Health Organisation’s warning that the “window of opportunity” for preventing a global pandemic is narrowing. The risks have increased substantially over the last few days with major outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy and South Korea. A disease […]
Rescue of major conglomerate, struggling SMEs raise risks for China and global economies
The most important issue here remains the human cost of the coronavirus outbreak. My thoughts and hopes continue to go out to my friends, contacts and colleagues in China. From the less important economic perspective, the good news is that the kind of coordinated action that would be impossible in any other country means the […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 at risk of 2.4m decline because of coronavirus
By John Richardson I AM a bit confused this morning following some excitement about the Chinese decision to allow polyethylene (PE) importers to apply for exemptions from the 25% additional tariffs on US high-density (HDPE) and linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that have been in place since August 2018. One of my contacts for instance sent […]
Coronavirus: Global polypropylene demand in 2020 could fall by 2.6m tonnes over last year
By John Richardson SOME GOOD news might be that official Chinese state media announced that the number of coronavirus cases outside Hubei province had up until Saturday fallen for 12 days in a row. But given the difficulty of diagnosing the disease, and last week’s sharp upward revision in Chinese estimates of the total number […]
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