By John Richardson The only honest answer is that none of us know how events will turn out because of the rapid pace and unpredictable nature of the coronavirus crisis. As of writing, for instance, India had just gone announced a temporary lockdown But petrochemicals companies must still try and predict the future otherwise they […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Coronavirus: The new ten-point guide for the petrochemicals industry
By John Richardson EARLIER THIS month I provided you with a ten-point guide for the impact of coronavirus on the petrochemicals industry. There have been many, many changes since then. Here is the latest version: The number One priority is employees and their well-being. Their psychological and emotional as well as physical needs will be […]
Container freight shortages will lead to regional petrochemicals trade and supply shortages
By John Richardson THIS excellent chart highlights the lingering effects of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the global container freight industry. Now, because the crisis has gone global, we must expect the disruptions to intensify: Many containers will be stuck in the wrong places, unable to find cargoes to move to where they are […]
European polyethylene and coronavirus: Panic buying versus the real demand outlook
By John Richardson NOW that the epicentre of the virus has moved to Europe, we need to think through what this means for the region’s petrochemicals demand. As usual, I am going to focus on polyethylene (PE). But what follows can also be applied to other polymers that are heavily used in packaging applications such […]
Big declines in Chinese polyethylene imports, a global recession and a financial crisis
By John Richardson YOU MIGHT be hoping that sanity will be restored after the “most expensive speech history” – Donald Trump’s comments that have been unfairly or otherwise blamed for yesterday’s rout in global stock markets. But has the market really been oversold, mainly or entirely in response to a few ill-judged words from the […]
Despite China returning to work, polyethylene growth prospects continue to decline
By John Richardson ONE of the enduring false views out there is that China’s economy will entirely recover later this year once the coronavirus crisis has been brought under control. Support for this misguided picture of events has built over the last couple of weeks as the number of new infections in China has declined. […]
Coronavirus: No recovery in petrochemicals likely until end-2020 and here are ten reasons why
By John Richardson HERE IS your print-out-and-keep 10-point guide, summarising the key themes I’ve covered over the last two weeks with important updates. I hope this helps your petrochemicals business in its planning process. Before we begin, I am afraid to say that we have probably lost a year’s worth of demand growth.Growth likely to […]
Coronavirus: China ethylene glycols demand could fall by 1.2m tonnes as imports also diminish
By John Richardson IN GEORGE ORWELL’S magnificent parody of communism, Animal Farm, he writes; “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’”. So it goes in petrochemicals value chains. All the chains have been affected by the coronavirus outbreak. They all share the commonality of a big loss over at least […]
Decline of 2.1m tonnes in 2020 global polypropylene demand now seems best possible outcome
By John Richardson EVERY DAY that goes by when China is not entirely back at work the economic damage is multiplying. It already looks as if the best China can hope for is real as opposed to politically manufactured 2020 GDP growth of around 2.25%. And that assumes a rapid economic rebound from Q2, which […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 could fall by 3.3m tonnes, cost curve analysis turned on its head
By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
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