By John Richardson THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN out there remains whether petrochemicals and polymers demand will be stronger, the same or weaker post-pandemic than during the pandemic in the developed markets plus China. We seem to be getting no closer to any answers. This matters from a hard-hearted dollars and cents perspective because the developed markets […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China ethylene glycols and paraxylene: new 2021-2031 import scenarios as self-sufficiency threat increases
By John Richardson WHEN I WAS a boy in 1970s Britain, a new pair of shoes was an expensive proposition and so I had to make them last. Durable goods in general were costly relative to incomes, so many people rented televisions and had to save long and hard to buy new sofas. But then […]
Iran may gain 48% of total China HDPE imports, 85% of LDPE imports by 2025 because of new deal
By John Richardson IRAN and China earlier this month signed a wide-ranging economic and security agreement that has been under negotiation for five years. The deal involves $400bn of investment in the overall Iranian economy with as much as $280bn of spending on oil, gas and petrochemicals. Before I crunch the data and demonstrate how […]
China’s environmental policies: scenarios essential for impact on local and global petrochemicals
By John Richardson WE MUST develop very nuanced, broad ranging and constantly updated scenarios about what could happen in China over the next 20 years. Special scenario teams need to be set up by petrochemicals companies that focus only on China because the country will remain by far the most important petrochemicals market. China will […]
Seeing through the lack of data: new scenarios for global LLDPE demand in 2021-2025
By John Richardson WE DON’T HAVE THE DATA sets nor the data tools to work out what is going to happen next with any acceptable degree of reliability. Until or unless we develop the necessary data sets and tools we will remain, in my view, all at sea about the direction of petrochemicals demand. The […]
China’s data gaps mean we must plan for multiple petchems demand, import outcomes
By John Richardson WE ARE STILL waiting for detailed data on China’s petrochemicals and polymers imports in January and February 2021. This is just one of many China data holes for January-February. We do know, however, that overall imports of plastics in primary form rose in volume by 8% in January-February 2021 versus the same […]
China’s critical 2021 “two sessions” highlight major economic challenges ahead
By John Richardson IT CONTINUES to surprise and disappoint me how every minutiae of the recent US petrochemicals outages have been pored over by analysts and yet relatively little attention is being paid to plant operations in China and the real, underlying nature of the country’s petrochemicals demand. This is despite China being far more […]
China’s “two sessions” in 2021 could easily set the direction of global petchems for decades to come
By John Richardson DO YOU have a dedicated team studying the policy outcomes from this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which began last Friday and finish on 11 March? (These annual meetings are commonly referred to as the “two sessions”. For reasons described below, […]
Complexity of global PP demand post-pandemic: Three new scenarios for 2021-2025
By John Richardson THE COMPLEXITY of the economic outlook is such that nobody can say with even the smallest degree of genuine confidence what will happen to global petrochemicals and polymers demand over the next five years. It is hard to know where to start in suggesting scenarios of how the interconnections between today’s four […]
China’s PP imports in 2021 could fall by as much as 53% over last year
By John Richardson TODAY I get closer to completing my outlooks for China’s petrochemical and polymer imports in 2021 by analysing what might happen in polypropylene (PP). Later this week or next week I will complete the picture by looking at styrene monomer. Previously, I examined polyethylene (PE), where this year there is very little […]
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