By John Richardson THE GOOD news is that medical experts believe the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak will follow the path of SARS and die down by April or May at the latest when warm weather usually arrives in China. Coronaviruses in general, and SARS is part of the same family as this latest […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Coronavirus: Global polyester chain faces major production cuts, shortages and cost increases
By John Richardson A GREAT example of the extent to which global supply chains are exposed to China is in the polyester sector where, as you can see from the above charts, China completely dominates global net imports of paraxylene (PX) and ethylene glycols (EG). Note that our database puts mono, di and tri-ethylene glycols […]
Coronavirus: Global polyolefins cutbacks seem inevitable on major China demand loss
We all hope that the coronavirus outbreak will soon be brought under control, that’s the main thing, and my sympathies and concerns go out to my good friends and everyone else in China. It also important to also think, as a secondary and less important issue, of the business risks, and I hope my latest […]
Why the trade deal is much ado about almost nothing
These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]
Higher Asian ethylene and polyethylene prices do not mean we are past the bottom of the downcycle
By John Richardson THE RISE in Asian spot ethylene prices is being cited as evidence of better downstream polyethylene (PE) supply and demand fundamentals. I am not convinced, partly because the ethylene spot market in Asia is so thinly traded that a myriad of unrelated factors could be behind the recent price increases. PE prices […]
US and Iran conflict in a world of declining growth and fragile supply chains
By John Richardson THINK of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and multiply its impact on global supply chains by at least a factor of ten. Then place the supply disruptions from the US and Iran conflict into the context of an already weakening global economy and you can begin to grasp the risks ahead. The […]
Iran and the US: Assessing the risks for petrochemicals and the global economy
As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Environmental taxes on US polyethylene shipments to the EU seem inevitable
By John Richardson IT ALL seemed to make perfect sense at the time. Feedstock and financing were incredibly cheap and trade barriers kept falling. Although there were some faint and distant public rumblings about plastic rubbish, most of the public and the majority of legislators were not bothered about the issue. The global economy was […]
China’s real GDP growth below 6% as mono-ethylene glycols margins provide early indicator of depth of downturn
By John Richardson GLOBAL stock markets will now doubt respond negatively to the news that China’s official GDP growth in Q3 fell to a 30-year low of 6%. But it important to put this event into the proper context. First of all, nobody has ever been able to trust of the official GDP growth numbers. […]
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