By John Richardson RARELY, IF EVER, have events felt so bafflingly complex in the global polyethylene (PE) business. Take as an example the chart below listing the factors that have reshaped demand since the beginning of the pandemic. Let’s go through these factors one by one, box by box. It is reasonable to assume, starting […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China could either see net imports of 63m tonnes in 2021-2031 or net exports of 18m tonnes!
By John Richardson CONFUSED BY the above chart? Once again I certainly hope so, provided confusion is not followed by blind paralysing panic. The chart, showing three scenarios for China’s net polypropylene (PP) imports in 2021-2031, follows last week’s chart of 2021-2031 high-density polyethylene net imports. Confusion is valuable because we need to go back […]
New China HDPE import scenarios for 2021-2031 in the context of Common Prosperity
By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
China polypropylene demand growth continues to disappoint as new capacity uncertainties increase
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYPROPYLENE (PP) demand will very likely still grow in 2021 despite what has been a disappointing year relative to expectations. My latest estimate is for consumption to grow by 3% over last year. This is based on China Customs net import data and our local production estimates for January-September 2021. As […]
Here is your guide to Asian and Global HDPE markets in Q4 this year and in 2022
By John Richardson THE COMING COLLAPSE of China, as I’ve discussed is before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil – perpetually 10 years away. But what seems evident to me is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and […]
China’s “Common prosperity” uncertainties multiply as we head into the unknown
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t warn you. This article in The Wall Street Journal confirms my warning that Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” reforms would face resistance from vested interests. China’s president Xi is having to dial back plans for the introduction of widespread property taxes, according to WSJ. “China has experimented with a […]
China provides major climate hope as latest IEA report underlines that it is all about the developing world
By John Richardson WHEN I worked for a UK local newspaper as a “cub” or junior reporter in the 1980s, there was a major international air crash. “Find out if there was anyone from our city on the flight,” my news editor instructed me. In my naivete, and because of lack of training, I was […]
China’s less commodity intensive future requires major petchem strategic rethink
By John Richardson THE THING about the collapse of China is that, like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil, it is always ten years away from happening. In other words, I don’t think it will happen. But as the journalist and author Richard McGregor said in this Dan Snow history podcast on this year’s […]
China pulls multiple policy levers to fix energy shortages but don’t forget secular fall in demand
By John Richardson Executive Summary CHINA’S POWER shortages could fixed by the end of this month or early November, I was told by a senior polyolefins industry source. Three other contacts concurred. My contacts could be wrong, of course. A coal trader quoted by Reuters said that the energy shortages could continue throughout the fourth […]
China petchem project cancellations on “common prosperity” may not mean higher imports
By John Richardson IT IS BEING suggested that China’s “common prosperity” policy pivot, the biggest event in the global economy since at least 2009, will lead to a slowdown in local petrochemicals capacity additions. Maybe. As we all know, our industry produces a lot of carbon emissions, and a key element of the policy pivot […]
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