By John Richardson THE trend that I identified last August is continuing. China is in the midst of a major contraction in lending via its highly unregulated, and so very risky, shadow banking system. Last year we saw a big fall in shadow lending, but now it has totally collapsed. In January, shadow lending was […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petchems Pricing Power, Operating Rates Tell Real Economic Story
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS and polymers pricing power – how easily petrochemicals producers can pass-on higher oil prices to their customers – is a great measure of the strength of the overall global economy. The reason is that petrochemicals are used to make a huge range of finished goods. In a booming economy, the pass-through […]
Global Economy In 2018: Stimulus Withdrawal Threatens Complacent Outlook
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world of soar-away stock markets backed up by the notion that the sustained global economic recovery will not be derailed in 2018, there is a need to detail the major risks out there. Today’s post will look at the risks posed by the withdrawal of Western and Chinese central bank […]
US Trade Policy Has So Far Bought China More Time…
…..But any number of outcomes remain possible, which underlines the fact that we live in a world of elevated political risk. Chemicals companies must, as a result, build multiple scenarios for future economic growth and trade flows. By John Richardson TIME was a commodity that China didn’t think it had very much of as recently […]
Life Cycle Of Plastics Packaging Demand And Internet Sales
By John Richardson THERE is a huge amount of excitement out there right now about booming internet sales and how this also boosting packaging demand and so sales of polymers such as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene and polystyrene. China is, not surprisingly, the biggest growth market. Demand for foamed PE is, for example, booming in China […]
China PP Market Outlook for H2 And 2018
By John Richardson AS IS the case with polyethylene (PE), China’s polypropylene (PP) market continues to catch up with the underlying realities of demand growth. If you recall, in Q1 of this year PP net imports (imports minus exports) grew by no less than 36% over the same period last year to 1.3m tonnes. The […]
European Polyolefins: Rebuilding The Bridges
By John Richardson SHOULD any petrochemicals value chain be a zero-sum game – a constant battle between suppliers and customers to determine who emerges as the single winner in any one month or quarter? No, absolutely not. It is possible to create win-win situations for both suppliers and customers, as has been the case […]
How China’s New Silk Road Is Reshaping Global Chemicals
By John Richardson THE red line on the map below, from the Washington Post, shows the world’s longest-ever freight-train journey, which began on 18 November in Yiwu, the largest wholesale centre for small consumer goods in China. It ended 21 days later, in December, in Madrid. The distance that the train covered — more than […]
Europe Needs A New “Marshall Plan”
By John Richardson IT isn’t working. Surely, Europe’s policymakers must realise this? The trouble is that I worry they still don’t get it, otherwise there would not be plans to print more money in Europe. Resorting to extra quantitative easing isn’t going to rescue Europe’s “lost generation”. More of the wrong kind of European economic […]
Central Banks Risk Being Behind The Curve
By John Richardson BACK in 2003 the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) predicted that dangerous imbalances were building up in the global financial system. The BIS, a Brussels-based international organisation for central banks, was worried that the Fed and other central banks were compromising long term stability in favour of short-term growth. Sadly, policymakers didn’t […]
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