By John Richardson IT WASN’T supposed to be like this. We firstly had the unprecedented increases in global capacity that threatened a deep downcycle. Then we had the accepted wisdom, a wisdom I bought into, that the pandemic would dig a giant hole in polyethylene (PE) demand. As recently as March, few producers would have […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – how petchem companies respond will define their success
Just to stress again that this blog represents my personal views and not those if ICIS. By John Richardson YOU WILL NEED to constantly debate the details of the megatrends as they will very often change entirely. And whilst today’s four megatrends – sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – will remain unchanged, their relative […]
China may next year import 66% less PP from South Korea than in 2020, 72% less styrene from Saudi Arabia
By John Richardson All the numbers that follow are my estimates only and are not the official ICIS numbers. But I hope what follows helps you with your planning process for 2021. Our ICIS Supply & Demand Database is a key tool for your planning process, as all the scenarios below would have been impossible […]
China’s planned economy boosts global petchems this year but poses a self-sufficiency threat in 2021
By John Richardson IT IS always useful to develop a good plan and then effectively implement the plan. China appears to have been successful in both these respects in 2020 and this has been of great benefit to the global petrochemicals business. If only this were the case with all other countries. Without the plan, […]
China petrochemicals rebound provides major global demand boost
By John Richardson WOW yet again. China’s export-led economic recovery continues to support global petrochemicals demand growth. Our business looks set to enjoy a much better year in 2020 than nearly all us had imagined was possible back in Q1. Here I only look at mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) and paraxylene (PX). But watch this blog […]
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
Global polyethylene markets: What’s happened in 2020 and an outlook for next year
By John Richardson HERE is your essential cut-out-and-keep summary of what has happened in global polyethylene (PE) markets in 2020 and your guide to what I believe will happen next year. The first two sections will review demand in the developed world and China and the rest of the developing world. These sections will also […]
Debate about refinery closures, re-configurations a harmful distraction for the petrochemicals business
In the second of a four-part series of blog posts that examines the paradigm shift confronting the petrochemicals industry – rising public and legislative pressure over plastic rubbish – I look at the harmful distraction of conventional thinking. Far too much of the debate within our industry is whether or not there will be enough […]
Developed world polymers demand: layer after layer of new complexity
By John Richardson THE PROPOSITION that petrochemicals and polymers demand in the developed will see a V-shaped recovery in 2021 assumes two things. One is that demand will have fallen in 2019 versus last year and the second is that the worst of economic times are behind us. There are so, so many challenges to […]
Retreat of globalisation and implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson EVER SINCE the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the last great geopolitical struggle came to an end, the petrochemicals business has benefited from a highly globalised world. Product has flowed, almost seamlessly, from one country to another in ever greater volumes. Sure, it has never been the case of feedstock advantage […]
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