By John Richardson IT HAS happened. Don’t say you weren’t told, as I have been warning you to prepare for this since President Trump became president. The president’s decision to impose $50bn worth of tariffs on US imports from China has led to immediate retaliation from China. China has announced its own list of US […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Auto Sales Slowdown Points To Lower Polypropylene Growth
By John Richardson AUTOMOBILES are, of course, a key end-use market for chemicals and polymers and China has been by far the most important global market in autos since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Chinese total vehicles sales soared from 6.3m in 2007 to 24.7m last year. Meanwhile, analysis from Paul Hodges shows that sales […]
China Innovation Success Versus Failure: Electric Vehicles As Case Study
By John Richardson WHAT is the best route to innovation? Pure capitalism with a minimum amount of state interference or state-led investment programmes? The answer is likely to of course vary sector by sector. In some industrial sectors, the capitalist approach will work and in others, heavy state involvement will be more effective. A hybrid […]
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
US-China Trade Dispute: Pause For Breath Does Not Mean End In Sight
By John Richardson Confused? You might well be if you’ve read the news reports following the US-China trade meeting in Washington last week. The immediate threat of a trade war looks as if it has been averted. China’s top envoy at the trade talks, Liu He, said that both sides had agreed for the time […]
China Emerges As Winner In New Multipolar World
By John Richardson TODAY’S headline should be written on your petrochemicals company boardroom wall, in several inch-high capital letters, and should then be used as the basis for a deep discussion about the consequences of this outcome for your business. You should then build scenarios around how this would change investment strategies and trade flows. […]
Asian Polyolefins Profits To Test 2012 Lows As Global Economy Slows
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS are a great barometer for economic growth as they are the raw materials for so many finished goods. So, if petrochemicals producers see their profits slip, this provides an early signal that something is wrong with wider economies. It is not just petchems producers that should therefore take note of the […]
Iran Nuclear Decision Further Threat To US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP’S decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, combined with the increasing likelihood of a US-China trade war, risks pushing the US polyethylene (PE) industry out in the cold. The above chart illustrates the US industry’s already difficult position in 2017 compared with ten years earlier. In all three […]
Unavoidable US-China Trade War: Implications For Polyethylene
By John Richardson A US-CHINA trade war has become much more likely following the negotiations that took place in Beijing last week. A compromise might of course still be struck, but the signs are not good. If a trade war breaks out, China would perhaps follow through on its threat to impose 25% tariffs on […]
Why China Can Become Major Polypropylene Exporter By 2025
By John Richardson ONE of the main topics of debate in the global polypropylene (PP) business is whether or not China will become entirely self-sufficient. The pessimists, or rather I would say the realists, go a step further. They believe that there is every chance that China will become a significant exporter. The final result […]
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