By John Richardson CHINA might still be in a race against time to achieve enough levels of innovation to escape its middle-income trap. This could mean that it has no choice but to reach a deal with the US on trade that gives it continued access to US intellectual property. Such a deal would avert […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US-China Trade War: Global Recession, Collapse Of Polyethylene Markets
By John Richardson YOU have had more than 12 months to prepare for a global trade war that is becoming ever-more likely, almost by the day. This would lead to a new global recession given the shaky nature of today’s “economic recovery”. President Trump overnight Asia time announced plans for a further $100bn of tariffs […]
Asian Polyolefins Markets Still Indicate Economic Slowdown
By John Richardson ANOTHER week has led to another fall in Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices despite higher naphtha feedstock costs on stronger crude oil. Pricing has been weak since the Lunar New Year Holidays, (15-21 February). Market participants had expected the opposite on a recovery in demand following the holidays and tight […]
Petrochemicals Markets Point To Synchronised Global Downturn
By John Richardson IF you repeat something enough times, such as the “emperor is wearing clothes”, lots of people begin to believe it. So is the case with the widespread idea that we are in the midst of an unshakeable synchronised global economic recovery. The problem with these kind of economic theories is that as […]
US-China Trade War Draws Closer: Impact On Petrochemicals
By John Richardson NOTHING that has happened over the last 24 hours should take you by surprise. Your petrochemicals company has had ample time to prepare for the US-China trade war that has now become a much stronger possibility following the US decision to impose $60bn of new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shortly after President […]
US Polyethylene: Even Without Trade War, $6.2bn Of Sales In China At Risk
By John Richardson AS THE number of exemptions from the new US steel and aluminium tariffs grow for Americas “friends”, the direct impact of the tariffs might end up being fairly minimal. So far, Canada, Mexico and Australia have been let off the hook. But the national security basis upon which the tariffs have been […]
Global Trade War: $12.4bn of US Petchems Exports At Risk
By John Richardson THE CUMULATIVE negative effect on global GDP as more and more countries became involved in a trade war is estimated by the above table on the left, from a research paper by economists as the Australian National University. The table shows the impact of each country imposing an extra 10% tariffs on […]
Evidence Builds Of China Slowdown As Economic Reforms Gather Pace
By John Richardson THE CHINESE economy remains one of the most overlooked threats to the conventional opinion that we are in the midst of a synchronised global economic recovery. Sure, some alarm bells rang with last week’s release of China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The official PMI saw its steepest fall in six years. […]
Struggling Polyethylene In 2018, Strong Profits Elsewhere
By John Richardson THERE will perhaps be two headline directions for the global chemicals and polymers industries in 2018: I believe that the global polyethylene (PE) market has a very good chance of moving from last year’s peak margins to levels of profitability below what is expected by most companies, investors and analysts. China’s ongoing […]
Asian Naphtha-PE Spreads Collapse By 80% As 2018 Challenges Build
By John Richardson ASIAN naphtha-to-polyethylene (PE) spreads collapsed by 80% in the first week of January compared with December last year because of the failure to pass on the rise in naphtha feedstock costs resulting from higher oil prices. In an update of the chart I’ve been running since late last year, what you see […]
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