By John Richardson WE GOT away with it in 2017 by luck rather than design, as there is of course very little that petrochemicals and polymers companies can do to prevent a global trade war other than lobbying politicians. Part of the reason for the lucky escape was the warmth of the Trump-Xi meeting in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China And Xi Jinping: The Five Big Challenges You Must Understand
By John Richardson THE above slide, from my speech at this year’s Gulf Petrochemical Association Forum, is a summary of much of the analysis on this blog over the past 12 months. This is another of my print-out-and-keep guides. Please pin to your chemicals company boardroom wall as you plan your scenarios for China. In […]
Global Debt At Unsustainable Levels As We Wait For Trigger Factor
By John Richardson THE whole point about debt is that it should be sustainable. You should only lend or borrower money if you are entirely convinced that future economic conditions – i.e. future demand – justify your commitments. Nice theory, shame about the practice. If lenders and borrowers badly misjudge future real demand then we […]
China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….
…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]
How Free Floating The Yuan Could Accelerate A Global Trade War
By John Richardson THERE is a 50% chance that the Yuan will become a freely trade currency in 2017 in response to the US signalling its willingness to start a global trade war, says Societe Generale. If Donald Trump pedals back on his rhetoric and/or Congress gets in the way of his plans and we avoid a trade […]
China: Planning For What Once Seemed Almost Impossible
By John Richardson FIVE years ago, the probability you would have attached to the third Scenario above – China’s polypropylene (PP) imports falling to just 300,000 tonnes – would no doubt have been close to zero. In 2011 the consensus view was that there was nothing wrong with the Chinese economy that a bit more economic stimulus […]
Polyethylene: A World Turned Upside Down
By John Richardson THE recent history of polyethylene (PE) shows a global competitive landscape very different from that which most people expected two years ago. Two years ago, we were told that the natural price for oil was $100/bbl because of limited supply and robust demand growth. The consensus view was also that whilst costly oil meant that […]
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