By John Richardson THERE will be a lot of official data released about booming consumer spending during China’s Golden Week and National Day holidays, which run from 1-8 October. The numbers, when they emerge later this month, will be broadly seen as further evidence that China’s recovery is firmly on track. This will add to […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petrochemicals and autos: the last 50 years provide little guide to the future
By John Richardson IT HAS been an amazingly half a century of innovation for the petrochemicals industry. The light-weighting of automobiles, combined with booming demand for autos, has delivered many billions of dollars of value to companies. The latest figures from the American Chemistry Council, which only cover North America, give a pointer towards the […]
Rate of recovery hugely reliant on effectiveness of government policies
By John Richardson UNLESS MORE action is taken by developed countries to help counter the impact of the pandemic in developing countries, we could see a bifurcated world. The developing world might suffer a lost generation of growth as the developed world fully recovers. But this, in my view, is a highly unlikely scenario. Failure […]
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the consequences of US presidential elections and this year’s the poll, which as always takes place in November, is no exception. The result will of course have huge global economic and geopolitical consequences. But I believe that the outcomes […]
Ah, I see: China’s booming demand mystery a little closer to being solved
Note that all the data comparisons below are on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson THE PROVERBIAL light bulb came on early last month, thanks to this article from Trade Data Monitor (TDM) which analysed China’s strong July exports and made the point that they were driven by a big change in lifestyles. Many […]
China will struggle to boost local retail sales during rest of 2020 with export outlook uncertain
By John Richardson IF IT were easy, then there would be an oversupply of owners of large yachts in Monte Carlo. But understanding China has never been easy and has become a great deal harder because of the pandemic. This makes “I really don’t know” the only honest answer to the question of what is […]
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
Why history might not even rhyme next year if economic recovery fails to arrive
By John Richardson WE were very lucky in 2010, as the above chart illustrates. Global demand for polyethylene (PE), which had fallen to minus 3% in 2008 because of the Global Financial Crisis, bounced back to 10% growth. We were lucky for two reasons. Firstly, the world’s financial system was rescued, which at one stage […]
China paraxylene and ethylene glycols apparent demand booms as real demand remains weak
All the numbers below are comparisons on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson WHERE HAVE all of China’s paraxylene (PX) and ethylene glycols (EG) gone? With suggestions that other commodities such as steel are being stockpiled, this is a question that must be answered as we assess what […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
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