By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYPROPYLENE (PP) demand will very likely still grow in 2021 despite what has been a disappointing year relative to expectations. My latest estimate is for consumption to grow by 3% over last year. This is based on China Customs net import data and our local production estimates for January-September 2021. As […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Here is your guide to Asian and Global HDPE markets in Q4 this year and in 2022
By John Richardson THE COMING COLLAPSE of China, as I’ve discussed is before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil – perpetually 10 years away. But what seems evident to me is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and […]
China’s less commodity intensive future requires major petchem strategic rethink
By John Richardson THE THING about the collapse of China is that, like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil, it is always ten years away from happening. In other words, I don’t think it will happen. But as the journalist and author Richard McGregor said in this Dan Snow history podcast on this year’s […]
China pulls multiple policy levers to fix energy shortages but don’t forget secular fall in demand
By John Richardson Executive Summary CHINA’S POWER shortages could fixed by the end of this month or early November, I was told by a senior polyolefins industry source. Three other contacts concurred. My contacts could be wrong, of course. A coal trader quoted by Reuters said that the energy shortages could continue throughout the fourth […]
China petchem project cancellations on “common prosperity” may not mean higher imports
By John Richardson IT IS BEING suggested that China’s “common prosperity” policy pivot, the biggest event in the global economy since at least 2009, will lead to a slowdown in local petrochemicals capacity additions. Maybe. As we all know, our industry produces a lot of carbon emissions, and a key element of the policy pivot […]
China carbon limits and Evergrande tied together as short term growth challenges build
By John Richardson Executive summary THE LIKELIHOOD that 227,000 tonnes of China’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) coal-based capacity is forecast to be lost to plant shutdowns in September and October this year looks at first glance to be good news for exporters to China. This would be much higher than the 43,000 tonnes of […]
Challenges facing China as it tries to bridge the rural-urban wealth divide
By John Richardson THIS COULD be the biggest event in our industry since at least the Global Financial Crisis, possibly even earlier. Do not make the mistake of underestimating the importance of China’s policy shift to “common prosperity” in your planning process. I’ve already covered some of the short-term potential implications in my posts on […]
China PP demand could fall by 1m tonnes in 2021 but prospects for PE look better despite a weak January-May
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart confirms that China’s economic slowdown, which began in January-February, continued into May. Remember that the only valid comparisons are between the first few months of this year and late 2020. If you conduct year-on-year comparisons then of course growth will look better because for several months during January-May 2020, […]
The pandemic, climate change, plastic waste and the great divide: the world in 2025
By John Richardson NOBODY SHOULD be surprised that the developing world has fallen behind in the battle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as the region is a long way from recovering from the pandemic. Evidence to this effect emerged last week in comments made by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). […]
Inflation pressures build on prolonged supply chain disruptions
By John Richardson OK, I MAY have got this wrong. Inflation could be a bigger problem than I envisaged only three weeks ago. But if so, I would at least be in exalted company. A meeting of the US Federal Reserve concluded that generalised inflation was not a concern, and that “finished goods have not […]
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