By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump has promised a “tremendous amount of business” for US farmers following the announcement of a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China. But US claims that China will eventually buy up to as much as $50bn of US agricultural products seem to defy economic logic given the price of soybeans, the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
IMF confirms global economy all about China as US threat to growth persists
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. An important new IMF study confirms what I’ve been arguing for a long time: China has overtaken the US to become the biggest locomotive of global economic growth. In the five years between 2013 and 2028, China accounted for 28% of all global growth, behind the […]
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
Hong Kong an example of rising political risk and the end of easy growth
This blog expresses my opinions and not those of ICIS By John Ricuardson THE UNREST in Hong Kong worsened over the weekend. Protestors were pepper-sprayed, rubber bullets were used and travellers on the Hong Kong underground were filmed being beaten by the police. Petrol bombs were thrown by demonstrators. This morning Hong Kong’s airport was […]
How the Millennials and “less is more” are destroying petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson WE HAVE gone beyond the point of no return because of a major societal shift. Millennials, and a good number of a lot older people such as myself, have come to believe that “less is more”, that the environmental cost of throwaway consumption is intolerable. Take this comment from this Wall Street […]
Environmental credits separate polymer Winners and Losers as the world divides
By John Richardson THE WORLD is becoming a much more complex and fragmented place as the consensus about the benefits of open markets and the largely unrestricted movement of labour is challenged. There also seems to be a split between those individuals and governments that agree with the science supporting human-made climate change versus those […]
Vietnam PE demand booms on trade war, but for how much longer?
By John Richardson GLOBAL manufacturing supply chains are adjusting to the US tariffs against China, accelerating a process that began a decade or so ago because of China’s ageing population versus more youthful populations elsewhere. Let’s use Vietnam as an example to first of all examine the longer term drift away from China. Since 2010, […]
China chemicals storage at bursting point indicates no big new economic stimulus
By John Richardson CHEMICALS markets are a great barometer for weather conditions in the wider economy because they are upstream of so many manufacturing industries. We should therefore take close notice of the above chart, from this excellent article by my ICIS colleague, Yvonne Shi. What the chart shows is that by mid-March, weekly inventory […]
China’s vital internet economy cannot be sacrificed for trade deal
By John Richardson THE latest stumbling block for the US/China trade talks is the Chinese reluctance to open up its market to foreign cloud computing companies, curb requirements for companies to store data locally and loosen restrictions on the transfer of data overseas. Many people’s first reaction will be that this is all about the […]
Growth in China second hand car market driven by ageing population
By John Richardson CHINA will become a country of a billion plus Western-style middle class consumers is what many people have been telling us for many years. Its unstoppable economic rise involves hundreds of millions more Chinese rising out of poverty as the economic boom moves steadily westwards into its poorer regions, is the popular […]
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