The blog is taking a break for the festive season (we will back on Thursday next week before, of course, closing-down again over the New Year period). We would like to wish all of our readers a very happy holiday season and successful 2012. Before we take our leave, here are a few thoughts […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Risks Of Being An Outlier
By John Richardson THE blog has been mystified throughout this year over why senior industry executives appear to remain “in denial” over the weakness of global petrochemicals markets. Time and again we have heard the comment that the falls in demand were only the result of de-stocking. The public mood of the industry has soured […]
China And The WTO Ten Years On
By John Richardson TEN years ago this weekend China officially joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and so no doubt numerous speeches have been given about all the benefits to the global economy. Here is a somewhat more negative perspective: *As the diagram above seeks to illustrate, China hugely built-up its manufacturing industry to take advantage of Western […]
Yuan Devaluation Needs To Be Considered
By John Richardson The “beggar my neighbour” trade wars that many economists feared would erupt after the global financial crisis were delayed thanks to fiscal stimulus. But now politicians will be under increasing pressure to erect trade barriers. “We are seeing a rise in antidumping cases involving chemicals,” a trade lawyer who specialises in the […]
India Needs A New Political Direction
Manmohan Singh compromises to the point where “policy has no direction” Source of picture: Wikipedia By John Richardson IN A week during which the Eurozone could quite easily break-up, the influence that individual political leaders will have on shaping our economic future has been thrown in to further stark relief. And in some countries it […]
Innovating Down The Value Chain
By John Richardson THE lack of depth and thought behind “analysis” of the economic challenges facing developing economies has worried the blog for some time. It is undoubtedly the case that as hundreds of millions more people in countries such as India and China emerge from poverty, the opportunities for the chemicals industry are enormous. […]
Investment Theories Don’t Need To Be True
By John Richardson DEVELOPED market plastics demand is currently 15 per cent below 2007 levels, despite a modest recovery in 2010, because of two successive years of double-digit declines in 2008 and 2009, according to a new HSBC report. Some estimates suggest that developed-market demand will return to pre-crisis levels by 2015, adds HSBC. However, the […]
Babyboomers Change The Markets
Consumption dominates chemical demand. Chapter 7 of our new ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ eBook therefore looks at the changes taking place in consumer markets. These provide vital insight into how chemical markets are likely to develop in the New Normal. The key learning is that companies are re-adapting their business models. The great […]
Chemicals Companies Sleepwalking Into 2012
By John Richardson CHEMICALS companies appear to be sleepwalking into a crisis as bad as 2008 because they have sacked their in-house economists and take what they want to hear from official bodies such as the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The famous international investor, Marc Faber, recently wrote that […]
It’s Always Helpful To Have A Plan
By John Richardson THERE are four major reasons why the first three quarters of 2011 have been excellent for chemicals companies, which are: 1.) Strong co-product credits have supported what have been weak commodity-grade polyolefin markets since March of this year (higher-value grades, such as co-polymer grade polypropylene for auto applications, have been better) 2.) […]
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